ECON1102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Real Interest Rate, Business Cycle, Xm Satellite Radio

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19 May 2018

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5 – Government Sector and Fiscal Policy

Public debt and the economy

• Government borrowing and the business cycle

 One rule for fiscal policy is that governments should seek to balance their

budgets over the business cycle

 During recessions, governments may borrow to finance temporarily larger budget

deficits

 During periods of economic expansion, governments would reduce the level of

public debt by running budget surpluses

 Rule for fiscal policy acts to stabilize the level of public debt and would prevent a

persistently rising level of public debt over time

A golden rule for public investment

• Distinction between government spending for current consumption and for

investment in public capital (public infrastructure)

• Basi piiple udelyig the ule is oe of pay-as-you-use

• Since government consumption expenditures only provide benefits to the current

generation they should be paid for by current taxes

• If long-lived, government investments will typically provide benefits for future

generations as well as current generation

 Because future generations share in the benefits of government investment

spending, there is a case on equity grounds that they should contribute to cost of

investment

 This occurs if governments borrow to fund their investment spending, as the

higher taxes required to repay the debt will fall on future generations

• Governments should borrow to fund investments that benefit future generations but

fund consumption expenditures by current taxes

Costs of public debt

• Consequences of high levels of public debt for economic growth

 Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) suggested that a public debt to GDP ratio greater

than 90% is associated with a considerable fall in the economic growth rate

 Kumar and Woo (2010) estimate that a 10 percentage point increase in a

outys iitial det to GDP atio is assoiated ith a edutio i the aual

real growth rate of about 0.2 percentage points per year

 Other things equal, if a ountry’s det to GDP ratio were 0% rather than 0%, its

annual growth rate would be 1.8% rather than 2%

• Possible crowding out of private investment due to higher interest rates

 Closed economy NS and I model predicted an increase in the government deficit

ould ted to iease the eal iteest ate ad edue od out the leel of

private investment

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Related Questions

1.Ceteris paribus, if the U.S. federal government reduces its budget deficit which of the following will be observed?

Answer

	a.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right.
	b.	The economy will always approach potential GDP.
	c.	The marginal propensity to consume will increase.
	d.	The average price level will increase.
	e.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left.

2. If the government wants to close a GDP gap, it can:

Answer

	a.	lower government spending on social security.
	b.	adopt contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation.
	c.	increase its budget deficit.
	d.	repay its borrowings.
	e.	raise both direct and indirect tax rates.

3. Suppose the short-run equilibrium level of income exceeds the full employment level of income and there is high inflation. Hence, the government decides to implement a fiscal policy that will act to reduce national output and price level. This can be accomplished by:

Answer

	a.	lowering average tax rates such that aggregate supply is increased.
	b.	increasing government spending such that aggregate expenditures are increased.
	c.	increasing transfer payments such that aggregate expenditures decline.
	d.	raising taxes and government spending by the same amount such that aggregate supply is decreased and aggregate demand is increased.
	e.	decreasing government spending such that aggregate demand is reduced.

4. A drop in investment spending caused by increased government budget deficits is referred to as:

Answer

	a.	the multiplier effect.
	b.	crowding out.
	c.	an expansionary gap.
	d.	the paradox of thrift.
	e.	the Ricardian equivalence.

5. Discretionary fiscal policy is best defined as:

Answer

	a.	the deliberate manipulation of the money supply to expand the economy.
	b.	the deliberate change in tax laws and government spending to change equilibrium income.
	c.	the policy action taken by the Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit.
	d.	the arbitrary fluctuation in tax laws and budget requirements.
	e.	the automatic change in certain fiscal instruments when real GDP changes.

6. Which of the following can be considered as an automatic stabilizer in the economy?

Answer

	a.	Money supply
	b.	Disposable income
	c.	Real exchange rate
	d.	Real interest rate
	e.	Unemployment insurance

7. Which of the following is true about automatic stabilizers?

Answer

	a.	When income rises, automatic stabilizers increase/boost spending.
	b.	Automatic stabilizers are a part of discretionary fiscal policy.
	c.	An automatic stabilizer is any program that responds to fluctuations in the business cycle in a way that moderates the effects of those fluctuations.
	d.	Any kind of trade policy adopted by the government will be considered as an automatic stabilizer.
	e.	The interest rate is an example of an automatic stabilizer.

8. Increased budget deficits

Answer

	a.	can cause interest rates to increase and hence decrease net exports
	b.	have no effect on net exports
	c.	can cause interest rates to decrease and hence increase net exports
	d.	never impose additional interest costs on the government

9. The Ricadian Equivalence implies that when financing additional government expenditures

Answer

	a.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will decrease either way.
	b.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will increase either way.
	c.	increasing borrowing is the best option
	d.	increasing current taxes is the best option

10. Assuming no effects on aggregate supply, if the government increases government spending and decreases taxes in an attempt to prevent a possible recession, aggregate demand will shift to the ____, the price level will either remain constant or ____, and the level of real GDP will ____.

Answer

	a.	right; decrease; increase
	b.	right; decrease; decrease
	c.	left; decrease; decrease
	d.	left; increase; increase
	e.	right; increase; increase

11. For a hypothetical economy, the MPS is 0.08 and the MPI is 0.17. If government spending increases by $35 and taxes increase by $35, what will be the net effect on equilibrium income?

Answer

	a.	A decrease of $35
	b.	An increase of $105
	c.	An increase of $35
	d.	A decrease of $105
	e.	A decrease of $15

12.12. The term fiscal policy refers to

Answer

	a.	the adjustment of the GDP for inflation.
	b.	the purchase and sale of U.S. government securities to regulate the money supply.
	c.	the use of government spending and taxation to influence the level of economic growth and inflation.
	d.	the use of fines to penalize unfair business practices.
	e.	a policy action by Congress to overrule unpopular budget cuts by the president.

13. If aggregate demand intersects aggregate supply in the vertical range of the aggregate supply curve, then, other things equal, an increase in government spending will

Answer

	a.	raise the price level and leave real GDP unchanged.
	b.	raise real GDP by the amount indicated by the government spending multiplier and leave the price level unchanged.
	c.	raise both real GDP and the price level by a multiple of the initial spending increase.
	d.	have no effect on real GDP or on the price level, because all private investment will be crowded out.
	e.	lower real GDP by an amount equal to the spending increase and reduce inflation.

14. Which of the following is not a means to finance government spending?

Answer

	a.	Government subsidies
	b.	Government debt
	c.	Capital gains taxes
	d.	Personal income taxes
	e.	Money creation

15. An automatic stabilizer is

Answer

	a.	a change in government spending aimed at achieving a policy goal.
	b.	an element of fiscal policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	c.	an element of monetary policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	d.	a decrease in tax rates as the economy moves into a recession.
	e.	a deliberate change in taxation aimed at increasing real GDP.

16. Budget deficits tend to grow during recessions because

Answer

	a.	real GDP growth is zero, which causes neither tax receipts nor government expenditures to grow.
	b.	real GDP growth is positive, which reduces both tax receipts and transfer payments.
	c.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces transfer payments in relation to tax receipts.
	d.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.
	e.	real GDP growth is positive, which increases tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.

TRUE or FALSE?

1. Real GDP can never be greater than potential GDP.

2. When foreign countries experience an increase in income, this is likely to increase our GDP.

3. The United States economy spends about as many months in recession as it spends in expansion.

4. If individuals decrease their consumption spending then this is likely to reduce the growth rate of GDP, all else the same.

5. Movements of real GDP around potential GDP are called the business cycle.

6. If total government spending in a given year was $3.7 trillion, then all of this spending counted directly in GDP as part of the government spending (G) category.

7. The last recession in the United States began in December of 2007.

8. During a recession, the inflation rate tends to decline.

9. Changes in spending that cause firms to change their level of production of goods/services are called supply shocks.

10. All else the same, an increase in income in the United States leads to a decrease in our net exports.

11. Since 1929 there have been 14 declared recessions in the United States.

12. Total spending in the economy is equal to consumption + investment + government spending - net exports.

13. During each recession, potential GDP falls.

14. Percentage wise, the government collects more tax from individuals than it does from firms.

15. During a recession, the Federal Reserve pursues contractionary monetary policy.

16. During a recession, the Federal Reserve is most likely to sell government bonds to the public.

17. Investment spending increases during periods of recession.

18. Congress meets about every 6 - 8 weeks to discuss the performance of the economy and potential changes to fiscal policy.

19. If there is more competition among firms, then the inflation rate will tend to increase.

20.The demand for labor increases when the economy is in an expansionary phase.

21. Total spending by the government is about 20% of GDP in the US economy.

22. The unemployment rate decreases during periods of expansion.

23. If oil prices increase by 20% then this is an example of a supply shock.

24. When the Federal Reserve buys government bonds, interest rates are likely to fall.

25. If Congress wanted to help the economy out of a recession, they would be most likely to reduce government spending and/or increase taxes.

Falsenot in accordance with the fact or reality or actualityMore (Definitions, Synonyms, Translation)

plumeagle724

1. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the level of overall spendingin the economy by changes in:
A) the interest rate.
B) the money supply.
C) banking regulations.
D) taxes and spending.

2. Economists have identified several consecutive months of fallingemployment and forecasts for the next few months are for more ofthe same. At what point in the business cycle is the economyapparently located?
A) recession
B) expansion
C) business cycle peak
D) business cycle trough

3. The onset of the Great Depression:
A) was not a shock to anyone since most economists predicted theâroaring 20sâ were bound to end in disaster.
B) created a disagreement between the Hoover administration andconventional economists because Hoover wanted the government tointervene much more quickly than most others.
C) came as a considerable shock to the conventional wisdom ofeconomics at that time and opened the door for critiques ofmainstream thought by economists like JM Keynes.
D) was in 1918 at the end of World War I.

4. When economists measure economic growth, they often use:
A) the inflation rate.
B) the unemployment rate.
C) nominal GDP.
D) real GDP.

5. In a typical business cycle, the business cycle peak isimmediately followed by the:
A) recession.
B) business cycle trough.
C) expansion.
D) depression.

6. Suppose an economy experiences rising total output accompaniedby increasing employment, this is generally known as:
A) stagflation.
B) recession.
C) inflation.
D) expansion.

7. Controlling interest rates is an example of:
A) fiscal policy.
B) tax policy.
C) monetary policy.
D) exchange rate policy.

8. The alternation between recessions and expansions is known asthe:
A) unemployment rate.
B) long-run economic growth.
C) business cycle.
D) macroeconomy.

9. A recession in America is typically associated with:
A) a falling unemployment rate.
B) a decrease in the number of people living in poverty.
C) a decrease in the percentage of Americans with healthinsurance.
D) an increase in corporate profits.

10. The purpose of macroeconomic policy is to:
A) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate.
B) reduce the severity of recessions.
C) rein in excessively strong expansions.
D) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate and to reduce theseverity of recessions.

11. The trade balance is the difference between the value ofthe:
A) trade deficit and the budget deficit.
B) goods and services that one country sells to other countries andthe value of the goods and services it buys in return.
C) exchange rates of two countries that are engaged ininternational trade.
D) national debt and the foreign debt.

12. Increasing the total amount of available productive resourcesis the focus of __________.
A) macroeconomics
B) fiscal policy
C) monetary policy
D) microeconomics

13. The point on a business cycle when real GDP stops rising andbegins falling is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

14. During a recession, one will often observe:
A) aggregate output rising.
B) unemployment rates will be increasing while aggregate output isfalling.
C) employment rates will be rising.
D) zero unemployment rates.

15. Monetary policy involves:
A) changes in government spending.
B) changes in government tax receipts.
C) changes in the quantity of money.
D) changes in tax rates.

16. The trough of the business cycle:
A) comes right after the expansion phase.
B) comes before the recession phase.
C) is a temporary maximum level of real GDP.
D) is a temporary minimum level of real GDP.

17. Which one of the following statements about the U.S. economy isnot accurate?
A) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratelower than the average annual growth rate of population.
B) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratehigher than the average annual growth rate of population.
C) Since the Second World War, macroeconomic policy has helped makethe economy more stable.
D) Long-run growth per capita is the key to higher wages and arising standard of living.

18. An economic recovery is all of the following except:
A) economic growth of a sustained nature.
B) a short-run increase in aggregate production in aneconomy.
C) a time of increasing employment.
D) the end of the business cycle.

19. Which of the following would NOT be classified as amacroeconomic question?
A) How many people are employed in the economy as a whole?
B) What determines the overall level of prices in the economy as awhole?
C) What determines the overall trade in goods, services, andfinancial assets between the United States and the rest of theworld?
D) What determines the cost to a university or college of offeringa new course?

20. Which of the following statements regarding price level orinflation is correct?
A) Supply and demand can not explain why a particular good orservice becomes more expensive relative to other goods andservices.
B) Inflation affects only the more advanced countries whereas lessadvanced countries face deflation.
C) Prices of most goods and services remained stable during thegreat depression.
D) In general, when the economy is in recession and jobs are hardto find, inflation tends to fall.

21. If wages grew at a 5% rate last year and average prices grew ata 3% rate, then the average worker is:
A) better off.
B) worse off.
C) no better or worse off.
D) unaffected.

22. In an open economy:
A) the exchange rate is determined by the government.
B) specialization in activities with a comparative advantage is notpossible.
C) trade is only beneficial to the relatively larger economy.
D) there is trade in goods, services, or assets with othercountries.

23. Changes in government spending and taxes in an effort to changeoverall spending in an economy is:
A) fiscal policy.
B) monetary policy.
C) investment.
D) the stock market.

24. If an economy is open, this means that:
A) anyone can immigrate to the country.
B) trading with other countries makes up a portion of itseconomy.
C) it does not trade with other countries.
D) it will experience a drop in its real GDP.

25. Inflation is a situation where:
A) the average price level falls.
B) the average price level increases.
C) the average price level becomes negative.
D) the real price level falls.

26. The topics studied in macroeconomics include:
A) the price of a motorcycle.
B) the wages of engineers.
C) the average price level in the economy.
D) how much ice cream consumers buy.

27. A period of rising real GDP is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

28. The modern tools of macroeconomic policy are:
A) tax policy and antitrust policy.
B) fiscal policy and monetary policy.
C) monetary policy and exchange rate policy.
D) capital policy and labor policy.

29. A ârubber neckingâ traffic jam is an example of:
A) microeconomics in action.
B) individual behavior that has a large aggregate impact.
C) the paradox of thrift.
D) an outcome smaller than the sum of its parts.

30. The most painful consequence of a recession is:
A) rising unemployment.
B) increasing inflation.
C) increasing aggregate output.
D) higher interest rates.

31. Per capita economic growth is:
A) economic growth per unit of capital.
B) economic growth per person.
C) economic expansion over the business cycle.
D) sustained increase in aggregate output.

32. Keynesian economics stressed:
A) total spending.
B) the self-regulating power of free markets.
C) the long run.
D) that the Depression should run its course to bring down the highcost of living.

33. When an economy's overall production grows faster than itspopulation, this is referred to as:
A) long-run growth per capita.
B) an increase in nominal GDP.
C) deflation.
D) the paradox of thrift.

34. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the overall level of spendingin the economy through:
A) changes in the inflation rate.
B) changes in the quantity of money or the interest rate.
C) changes in tax policy or government spending.
D) discretionary regulation of profits and wages.

35. With regard to the aggregate price level, economists generallybelieve:
A) price stability is a desirable goal.
B) inflation is worse than deflation.
C) deflation is worse than inflation.
D) inflation actually benefits most retired people.

36. Recessions are periods when:
A) output rises.
B) the aggregate price level rises.
C) the unemployment rate is falling.
D) output and employment are falling.

37. Monetary policy attempts to affect the overall level ofspending in the economy by changes in:
A) taxes.
B) taxes and spending.
C) taxes and interest rates.
D) interest rates and the quantity of money.

38. The basic difference between an economic recession and economicdepression is that:
A) the latter is a shorter economic downturn than the former.
B) during recessions output falls faster than duringdepressions.
C) during depressions employment falls faster than duringrecessions.
D) the former is a longer economic downturn than the latter.

39. The central mission of modern macroeconomics is to prevent_____ from happening again.
A) recessions
B) inflation
C) deflation
D) anything like the Great Depression

40. Fiscal policy refers to:
A) the control of interest rates.
B) the control of government spending and taxations.
C) the control of the quantity of money.
D) the control of interest rates and of government spending.

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ECON1102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Real Interest Rate, Business Cycle, Xm Satellite Radio

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