PSYC 2002 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: 5,6,7,8, Unimodality, Observational Error
19 Feb 2014
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It comes up heads four times in a row. How many things can happen on the fifth flip of the coin? (2) How many of those things count as i flipped heads ? (1) How many of those things count as i flipped tails ? (1) What proportion of the total number of things that can happen would count as. The coin has no memory: it doesn"t know that it is due for a tails : the probability on any given throw (even after 100 throws of heads ) reduces to: p(heads) = . 5 and p(tails) = . 5. This same logic applies to dice games, roulette, slot machines, cards, and. Just because the game has tended to play out in one direction does not. Mean it is due to switch to another series of outcomes: these games have no memories. There are 52 cards in a deck of cards.
