ATOC 184 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Ensemble Forecasting, Coriolis Force, Pressure-Gradient Force
11 Apr 2018
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Document Summary
Computer power: of course, with increased computer power, there is an ability to increase the resolution of. Gcm"s: this allows us to use fewer parameterizations, as well as more accurately represent differences in land surfaces, however, it is not completely obvious that smaller grids are the best use of the computing power. Ensemble prediction: this uncertainty is in part addressed through the use of ensemble forecasts. Initial conditions are varied slightly and many forecasts are produced giving an. Track of storm: as time goes long, the spread increases, the more models producing an outcome, the more confident we are in the forecast, there are several ways we can create an ensemble. Change the way we make the calculations. But you can see the probability of temperatures being above/below normal. Claim: if you have your back to the wind, low pressure (cold temp) on your left, high pressure (warm temp) on your right.
