GEOL 1151 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Oil In Place, Source Rock, Porosity
Document Summary
Uncertainty is the lack of knowledge of actual answer/outcome. Understanding of both is essential: evaluating the chance of success for an exploration well/project, likely size of volumes in an oil or gas discovery, decide whether a discovery is likely to be commercially viable. Assessing the risk of failure to fill a prospect: source rock, seal, reservoir and trap. Pos = (0. 6 x 0. 9 x 0. 4 x 0. 5) =10. 8% Monte carlo simulations probabilistic random sampling to generate simulated data to use with mathematical model. Provide software with: base case and rangers for each of the input values. Model samples these ranges randomly, thousands of times, to generate a range of possible outcomes. Easily change input distribution to answer what if . Case study: sakhalin, russia seismic data allowed them to estimate reservoir thickness. Properties in shallow marine calculate using stoiip. Volume x porosity x source x net income.
