MGMT 3230 Lecture Notes - Exponential Smoothing, Delphi Method, Meteorology
30 Jun 2020
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A demand forecast is an estimate of demand expected over a future time period. ***vicious cycle bc estimation can be inaccurate and can affects overall economy. Forecast more accurate for groups vs individuals. Forecast accuracy decreases as time horizon increases. **forecast should be timely, and horizon must cover the time necessary to implement possible changes. Steps in the forecasting process: determine purpose of forecast, establish a time horizon, gather and analyze relevant historical data, select a forecasting technique, prepare the forecast, monitor the forecast. Considers soft info like human factors, experience, gut instinct. Time series models [extends historical patterns of numerical data] Associative models [create equations with explanatory variables to predict the future] The 6 year old is a doctor and the 4 year old is a lawyer. **instead of apple use, it"s apple cranberry juice lmao. Delphi method: iterative questionnaires circulated until consensus is reached. Irregular variations: caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behaviour (called noise)
