Both Brits and Russia find it difficult to communicate with forces in Turkey. Takes a week for british to
send message, local commander begins to refuse order, often 2 days out of communication with navy.
English trying to make Russia back down, but without realize it antagonize them.
Russian Tsarist commander knows that there's no winning though, Istanbul could be taken but wouldn't
be held. Rejects orders to occupy Istanbul. Shuvelov goes directly to the Tsar.
Russian's have clear picture of English intentions that guide their actions.
Lord Salisbury learns a great deal about Russia from lessons learned from intelligence. Because the
english decisionmaking system is much more fractured on the issue of Turkey, in the key dispute
between Russia and turkey, english intel is as good as the russian's but doesn't allow them to pursue any
Schlieffen plan. Barely paying attention, my bad.
Serb government linked to the Black Hand group, knows in advance of the plan to assassinate Franz
Ferdinand. Classic political warfare.
Still in an age when gentlemen and diplomats consider it unseemly to lie.
Ethnocentrism – Germans look atAustrian army and think that if they were in their position, they could
knock out the Serbs in a week.Assume theAustrians are the same, not so.
When war breaks out, people find intel doing things it's never done before. In summer of 1914, first age
of intel to modern age of intel.Abrupt shift. Suddenly clear is that some new sources are emerging
which no one imagined were possible. First source: aircraft recon aided by imagery. In WWI, aircraft
recon and imagery are tactical sources of intelligence. Rarely able to get info more than 100 miles from
front lines. No one has effective cryptographic systems: as soon as you start using radio in war, you
find the code systems you have are so cumbersome that you can't use radio effectively – so you either
don't use radio or you have to use plain language. First month of the war, every major belligerent
sending orders from army groups to armies or corps in plain language. Draws attention of enemies.
Modern intel system emerging.August and Sept 1914 – british expeditionary forces fighting germans –
aircraft detecting movements, office intercept