GEOG 130 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Immigration, Ecumene, Doubling Time
Fertility – total fertility rate replacement level fertility
Fertility – number of children a woman has had
o
Fecundity – the physiological ability for an average woman to have children (avg. ~15
max. children)
o
Age-Specific Fertility Rate:
ASFR = (births in a year to women age x / women aged x at mid-year)1000
§
A more precise fertility rate
§
Calculated for five-year age groups (e.g., 15-19, 20-24 and so on to upper limits of
fertility
§
Requires much better data than CBR but is sensitive to variations in age of female
portion of the populations
§
o
Total fertility rate
TFR = sum of ASFRs x 5 / 1000
§
A precise, single-figure, fertility rate for a population
§
The rate is expressed as a value per one woman
§
TFR requires a substantial amount of data to calculate
§
o
Replacement level fertility
A rate of births per woman that would guarantee a stable population
§
Estimated 2.1 to 2.5
§
Compensates for early deaths, and replaces parents
§
o
Reasons for global fertility decline:
o
Improved contraceptives/increased knowledge and acceptance of contraceptives
1.
Reduced child mortality (less need to replace children who die)
2.
High rates of urbanization increase the cost-benefit ratio of children
3.
Increase education of women has raised earning power and increase the “opportunity
cost” of child bearing and child rearing (also favours later marriage)
4.
Improved technology leads to greater return to “investment” (incentive to educate
fewer children rather than to have large number of kids)
5.
Fertility transition
Since about 1970, fertility has declined throughout much of the less-developed
world and is continuing to decline
Need to consider current circumstances of areas being affected
•
Most powerful influence:
Improvement in education and lives of women
□
•
§
Primary reason why fertility is declining so rapidly in less developed world:
‘reductions are caused by a new cultural attitude related to educational
advances – a desire for smaller families and willingness to employ modern
contraceptive methods – and by the ready availability of these methods
•
§
missed a slide
§
o
infant mortality rate
IMR = (death under age 1 in a year / live births in a year) 1000
§
The rate at which babies less than one year of age die (age specific)
§
Is sensitive to poor living conditions and poverty, economic and social
development (a “proxy”)
§
Is used to compare health and well-being of populations across and within
countries
§
Variations and declines in all countries since 1932
§
Due to better health care for infants and children, sanitation, safe water supply
§
The improvements have been proportionally greatest in urbanized industrial
countries
§
Infant mortality rates Canadian First Nations
1979 FN IMR 27.6 deaths per 1000 live births
•
1999 FN IMR 8.0 (Canada 5.5)
•
2000 FN IMR 6.4
•
2005 FN IMR 6.4 (1.5 times that of other Canadians)
•
§
o
Population estimates:
1 million years ago : 125, 000
o
25,000 years ago : 3.4 million
o
10,000 years ago : 5.3 million
o
A.D. 1 : 250-300 million
RNI 0.05% (doubling time = 1400 years)
§
o
Historic and Current Ecumenes
Historically parts of the “developing world” have always comprised densely settle
ecumenes
o
ecumene: the permanently inhabited portion of the world
o
nonecumebe: uninhabited
o
different types of ecumenes – industrial, environmental, forestry – have unique
characteristics
e.g., geographers overlay data onto agricultural ecumenes in order to create
maps of agricultural activity
§
o
Population today:
today’s population structure is unique in world history
the base population is highest evera.
the rate of increase is fairly high stillb.
o
historical growth was highest in the developed countries
o
today, the areas that are growing the fastest are:
Africa
§
Asia
§
Latin America
§
o
More than 90% of the world’s population growth occurs in these areas
Death rates fallen, but birth rates twice as high as developed countries
§
In developed countries, rate of natural increase hovers at or below replacement
level
§
International migration is expected to be increasingly important in the future
§
o
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Population Geography (week 5 & 6 pt. 2/ pages 46-69)
Fertility – total fertility rate replacement level fertility
Fertility – number of children a woman has had
o
Fecundity – the physiological ability for an average woman to have children (avg. ~15
max. children)
o
Age-Specific Fertility Rate:
ASFR = (births in a year to women age x / women aged x at mid-year)1000
§
A more precise fertility rate
§
Calculated for five-year age groups (e.g., 15-19, 20-24 and so on to upper limits of
fertility
§
Requires much better data than CBR but is sensitive to variations in age of female
portion of the populations
§
o
Total fertility rate
TFR = sum of ASFRs x 5 / 1000
§
A precise, single-figure, fertility rate for a population
§
The rate is expressed as a value per one woman
§
TFR requires a substantial amount of data to calculate
§
o
Replacement level fertility
A rate of births per woman that would guarantee a stable population
§
Estimated 2.1 to 2.5
§
Compensates for early deaths, and replaces parents
§
o
Reasons for global fertility decline:
o
Improved contraceptives/increased knowledge and acceptance of contraceptives
1.
Reduced child mortality (less need to replace children who die)
2.
High rates of urbanization increase the cost-benefit ratio of children
3.
Increase education of women has raised earning power and increase the “opportunity
cost” of child bearing and child rearing (also favours later marriage)
4.
Improved technology leads to greater return to “investment” (incentive to educate
fewer children rather than to have large number of kids)
5.
Fertility transition
Since about 1970, fertility has declined throughout much of the less-developed
world and is continuing to decline
Need to consider current circumstances of areas being affected
•
Most powerful influence:
Improvement in education and lives of women
□
•
§
Primary reason why fertility is declining so rapidly in less developed world:
‘reductions are caused by a new cultural attitude related to educational
advances – a desire for smaller families and willingness to employ modern
contraceptive methods – and by the ready availability of these methods
•
§
missed a slide
§
o
infant mortality rate
IMR = (death under age 1 in a year / live births in a year) 1000
§
The rate at which babies less than one year of age die (age specific)
§
Is sensitive to poor living conditions and poverty, economic and social
development (a “proxy”)
§
Is used to compare health and well-being of populations across and within
countries
§
Variations and declines in all countries since 1932
§
Due to better health care for infants and children, sanitation, safe water supply
§
The improvements have been proportionally greatest in urbanized industrial
countries
§
Infant mortality rates Canadian First Nations
1979 FN IMR 27.6 deaths per 1000 live births
•
1999 FN IMR 8.0 (Canada 5.5)
•
2000 FN IMR 6.4
•
2005 FN IMR 6.4 (1.5 times that of other Canadians)
•
§
o
Population estimates:
1 million years ago : 125, 000
o
25,000 years ago : 3.4 million
o
10,000 years ago : 5.3 million
o
A.D. 1 : 250-300 million
RNI 0.05% (doubling time = 1400 years)
§
o
Historic and Current Ecumenes
Historically parts of the “developing world” have always comprised densely settle
ecumenes
o
ecumene: the permanently inhabited portion of the world
o
nonecumebe: uninhabited
o
different types of ecumenes – industrial, environmental, forestry – have unique
characteristics
e.g., geographers overlay data onto agricultural ecumenes in order to create
maps of agricultural activity
§
o
Population today:
today’s population structure is unique in world history
the base population is highest evera.
the rate of increase is fairly high stillb.
o
historical growth was highest in the developed countries
o
today, the areas that are growing the fastest are:
Africa
§
Asia
§
Latin America
§
o
More than 90% of the world’s population growth occurs in these areas
Death rates fallen, but birth rates twice as high as developed countries
§
In developed countries, rate of natural increase hovers at or below replacement
level
§
International migration is expected to be increasingly important in the future
§
o
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Population Geography (week 5 & 6 pt. 2/ pages 46-69)
Document Summary
Fertility total fertility rate replacement level fertility o o o. Fertility number of children a woman has had. Fecundity the physiological ability for an average woman to have children (avg. max. children) Asfr = (births in a year to women age x / women aged x at mid-year)1000. Calculated for five-year age groups (e. g. , 15-19, 20-24 and so on to upper lim fertility. Requires much better data than cbr but is sensitive to variations in age of fe portion of the populations o. Tfr = sum of asfrs x 5 / 1000. A precise, single-figure, fertility rate for a population. The rate is expressed as a value per one woman. Tfr requires a substantial amount of data to calculate o. A rate of births per woman that would guarantee a stable population. Compensates for early deaths, and replaces parents o. Reduced child mortality (less need to replace children who die) High rates of urbanization increase the cost-benefit ratio of children.
