GEOG 130 Lecture Notes - Ester Boserup, Demographic Transition, Carrying Capacity
Geog 130/ Oct 11
Population Geography (week 5 & 6/ pages 10-44)
Population density
- Arithmetic (crude): number of people per unit area of land
- Physiological: number of total people per unit of arable (cultivatable) land
- Agricultural: number of rural people per unit of arable land
Population are falling in some parts of the world – if you were updating the map in 50 years,
where would the largest population clusters in the world be?
- May move inward because of climate change
- Resources of land may lead into migration
- Grow in Africa, South America; lower populations eastern Europe, Japan
- Africa, North America (modest increase) incline population, decline in population Asia,
Europe, Latin America and Caribbean (including Mexica)
Why do populations rise or fall in particular places?
Demographic trends
- problem: the planets (in)ability to support so many people
othere is a vast gulf in birth and death rates
onot a simple divide between “have and “have-not” nations
- problem: disparities in living standards, health and economic prospects
oEurope and the west face a declining population and a possible “birth dearth”
oContinuing population growth in developing countries
Which demographic trend is predominant for the world?
- Reality: both trends are occurring
- Too many in some, too little in other
Two Perspectives
1) Most new people are added in developing countries (positive growth)
2) Developed countries are growing slowly or not at all (zero or negative population
growth)
As a result, such demographic disparities result in other processes, primarily
international migration
End result: a new world order
- “West” and “North” stagnant in population size
- “East” and “South” growing rapidly
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
“…the demographic relativities of the future will differ from todays in the certain diminution
[lessening] of the west – and, more generally, the north – giving still greater cause for a new
international order.” – Geoffrey McNicoll (1999)
- may change in who’s got the power?
Carrying capacity: number of people an area can support on a sustained basis using a given
technology (basis for determining “overcrowding”)
Population bomb?
- Thomas Malthus (ca1798) hypothesis: population growth will always create stress on
the means of subsistence
oPopulation growth (exponential 1,2,4,8…) has the potential to outstrip increase
in subsistence resources (linear, 1,2,3,4…)
- Esther Boserup (1965) increasing intensity of agriculture can accommodate population
increases
- Paul Ehrlich (1960s) warned of a “population bomb” b/c the worlds populations was
outpacing food production
- 1970s onward: some starvation in vulnerable areas (especially in Africa) and political
instability (Ehrlich and Malthus)
- not wide spreads starvation and deaths (i.e., not 100s of millions Ehrlich and Malthus)
- 1970s+ the green revolutions intervene:
Boserup’s predictions proved right (for now? Climate change and emerging threat)
S-Shaped curve model
- produced under carefully controlled experimental conditions
- growth process begins slowly, then increases rapidly and finally levels out at a ceiling
- still possible that the history of a human population growth will reflect and S-shaped
curve by 2200
World population growth – rate of natural increase (doesn’t take into acct. immigration and
emigration)
Population growth in India – significant demographic variations occur with countries
- in India, growth rates are higher in the East and North
- growth rates vary in India b/c…
o1960s population planning program
o1970s country began forced sterilization program for men w/ 3 or more children
– 22.5 million men were sterilized
o2004 state of Uttar Pradesh began guns for sterilization program
oToday, most states use advertising and persuasion to lower birth rates
World (crude) birth rate – number of births in a year per 1,000 people
- Africa leads the way
World (crude) death rate – number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people
- Russian has a high death rate
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Population geography (week 5 & 6/ pages 10-44) Arithmetic (crude): number of people per unit area of land. Physiological: number of total people per unit of arable (cultivatable) land. Agricultural: number of rural people per unit of arable land. May move inward because of climate change. Grow in africa, south america; lower populations eastern europe, japan. Africa, north america (modest increase) incline population, decline in population asia, Two perspectives: most new people are added in developing countries (positive growth, developed countries are growing slowly or not at all (zero or negative population growth) As a result, such demographic disparities result in other processes, primarily international migration. The demographic relativities of the future will differ from todays in the certain diminution. [lessening] of the west and, more generally, the north giving still greater cause for a new international order. geoffrey mcnicoll (1999)
