PLAN105 Lecture 17: Week 9

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In general, methods for translating past experience into estimates of the future. The further into the future you forecast, the greater the uncertainty around the estimates. Forecasting horizons (depends on theme: l/t: more than 2 years, m/t: 3 months to 2 years, s/t: 0 to 3 months. Key: our best ideas about the future are based on the past. Requires judgment, mixture of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Qualitative forecasting methods are based on educated opinions of appropriate persons and are reflected in the following methods. Subjective approaches that rely on expertise as well as gathering individual perspectives. Qualitative forecasting opinions by educated professionals, subjective: delphi method: forecast developed by panel of experts who anonymously answer questions; responses are fed back to panel members who then may change their original responses. Time consuming and expensive, new groupware makes this process more feasible: market research: panels, questionnaires, test markets, surveys, etc.

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