POLI 360 Lecture 8: Poli 360a Jan 26
Document Summary
When states are declining, they are very worried about deals (credible commitment problem) But they need some feeling of being able to win in order to actually fight. 2 examples: winter offensive 1917, austro-hungarian war on serbia 1914, conditions for the winter offensive: End of 1917, germany controls over 1/3 russia territory. Germany has option to settle for peace agreement cause they have large territorial gains in the east. Could have stopped there but instead started winter offensive cause belgium is key. Key thing is germany wants control of belgium to act as a buffer zone. Long term fear of alliance between uk, us and french = they need to get to. Germany through belgium; if belgium is independent they will likely side with the allies. Germans on their own in europe, (both italy and a/h) are useless; buffer zone is. Belgium gives germany access to the sea + puts the british isles much more close.
