PSYC 3210U Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Dependent And Independent Variables, Illusory Correlation, Psychopathy
Unit 9 – Risk Assessment and Violence Prediction
Case Study 1: Andrew Smith
• Born: 1963
• Personal History:
- As a youth, Mr. Smith had minimal behavioural problems in high school.
- He was suspended twice for fighting on school property. His grades
ere aerage C’s.
- He lived at home until the age of 22, when he moved into his own
apartment. He married Julie Jones at the age of 27, and they are still
married.
- They did not have any children.
• Index Offence:
- Mr. Smith has been charged and convicted of a violent sexual assault on
an unnamed female.
- She was accosted as she was walking home from her place of
employment, dragged into an alley, and brutally raped.
- During the rape, she was struck repeatedly by Mr. Smith.
- The assault left her in hospital in critical condition for 2 weeks, and
alcohol consumption (on the part of Mr. Smith) appears to have been a
factor in the incident.
• Prior Convictions:
- Mr. Smith has only 1 prior conviction.
- He was convicted of assault for his part in a bar fight when he was 23
years old.
Case Study 2: James Waters
• Born: 1988
• Personal History:
- Mr. Waters has a long history of alcohol abuse and has been in foster
care since the age of 8.
- He did not perform well academically, and dropped out of school in the
middle of grade 9.
- The file information indicates that he has an extensive history of
behavioural problems in school, beginning in kindergarten, and
continuing through junior high.
- He is not presently in a long-term relationship, and has no fixed address.
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• Index Offense:
- Mr. Waters has been convicted of drug trafficking.
- He was arrested after a raid by local police.
• Prior Convictions:
- Mr. Waters has an extensive juvenile record, with many property and
drug related convictions.
- As an adult, he has 3 prior convictions: 1) break and enter, 2) possession
of drugs with the intent to sell, and 3) violation of the conditions of
probation.
Risk Assessment and Violence Prediction
What is Risk Assessment?
• Risk is viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000)
- Probabilities change across time
- Interactions among offender characteristics and situation
Components of Risk Assessment
• Risk assessment has 2 components
- PREDICTION = predicting whether person is going to reoffend or not
- MANAGEMENT = once determine what risk factor someone has, what is
needed to reduce that risk factor
Settings for Risk Assessment
• Civil settings
- Civil commitment
- Child protection = to know when you need to go in and take children out
of homes
- Immigration = when to allow people enter the country
- School and labour relations = workplace violence
- Mental health professionals = clients who are suicidal, risk to actually
commit the act
• Criminal settings
- Pretrial = determine whether a youth might go to adult court
- Sentencing = how long will a person go to prison for
- Release = when will person be released (early release?)
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Types of Prediction Outcomes
• True Positive = predicting they will reoffend and they actually do
• True Negative = preditig that they o’t reoffed ad they atually do’t
• False Positive = thik soeoe ill reoffed ut they’re ot atually at risk
to reoffend
• False Negative = assuming someone is not at risk but then they actually do
reoffend
• Each type has different consequences
- False positive has impact on individual and false negative has impact on
society
The Base Rate Problem
• Base rate represents the % of people in a given population who commit a
criminal act
- Prediction is difficult when base rates are too high/low
- False positives tend to occur with low base rates
BASE RATE EXAMPLE
Actual
Violent
Not Violent
Predicted
Violent
True Positive
False Positive
Not Violent
False Negative
True Negative
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Document Summary
Unit 9 risk assessment and violence prediction. Case study 1: andrew smith: born: 1963, personal history: As a youth, mr. smith had minimal behavioural problems in high school. He was suspended twice for fighting on school property. He lived at home until the age of 22, when he moved into his own apartment. He married julie jones at the age of 27, and they are still married. They did not have any children: index offence: Mr. smith has been charged and convicted of a violent sexual assault on an unnamed female. She was accosted as she was walking home from her place of employment, dragged into an alley, and brutally raped. During the rape, she was struck repeatedly by mr. smith. The assault left her in hospital in critical condition for 2 weeks, and alcohol consumption (on the part of mr. smith) appears to have been a factor in the incident: prior convictions: Mr. smith has only 1 prior conviction.
