ECO 1302 Lecture Notes - Lecture 62: United States Dollar, Business Cycle

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26 Dec 2017

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Figure 4: the canadian national debt relative to gdp, 1870-2007. As figure 5 shows, the budget deficit ballooned from about billion in fiscal year. 1974 1975 to a peak of roughly billion a decade later in 1984 1985. As late as fiscal year 1995 1996, the deficit was still about billion. A billion surplus occurred just two years later in 1997 1998, and a surplus has been recorded each year until the 2008-2009 fiscal year. Figure 5: fiscal year federal budget surplus or deficit: 1962-2007. Structural (or cyclically adjusted) budget deficit (or surplus) = what the deficit (or. Interpreting the budget deficit or surplus surplus) would be if the economy was operating at its high employment level. Portion of the deficit unrelated to the business cycle. Shows how the deficit is related to government policy. Deficit = g +transfers -taxes = g - (taxes -transfers) = g t.

Related Questions

Dems, GOP talk up deficit reduction, but don't act

WASHINGTON (AP) â Liberals' loud objections to White House proposals for slowing the growth of huge social programs make it clear that neither political party puts a high priority on reducing the deficit, despite much talk to the contrary.

For years, House Republicans have adamantly refused to raise income taxes, even though U.S. taxes are historically low, and the Bush-era tax cuts were a major cause of the current deficit.

And now, top Democrats are staunchly opposing changes to Medicare and Social Security benefits, despite studies showing the programs' financial paths are unsustainable.

Unless something gives, it's hard to see what will produce the significant compromises needed to tame the federal debt, which is nearing $17 trillion.

"There's not much of an appetite for deficit reduction," said Bob Bixby of the Concord Coalition, which pushes for "responsible fiscal policy."

There might be a few small steps this year, he said, when the government again needs to raise its borrowing limit. But a "grand bargain" involving significant spending cuts and revenue increases seems unlikely, Bixby said.

He added, "It's a little depressing to hear the reactions to the president's budget, from both sides."

There was nothing surprising about Republican denunciations of Obama's proposed tax increases, which he wants to combine with spending cuts to reduce the deficit.

The newer wrinkle was the left's sharp criticism of his proposals to slow the growth in Medicare and Social Security benefits, provided Republicans agree to new revenues. Obama has offered Republicans such a deal before. But this month's budget proposal gave it a new imprimatur.

The group MoveOn.org said Wednesday that supporters "who are outraged at President Obama's proposal to cut Social Security benefits will protest and deliver petitions" this week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a liberal independent from Vermont, is leading a similar petition drive, opposing "any benefit cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid." The deficit, his letter says, "was primarily caused during the Bush years by two unpaid-for wars, huge tax breaks for the rich and a prescription drug program" for Medicare, funded through borrowing. He suggests that higher taxes on the wealthy are the fairest way to tackle the deficit.

Democrats cite several reasons to raise taxes on high-income households. Obama campaigned for such tax increases in 2008 and 2012 but accomplished them only partially with the "fiscal cliff" resolution of Jan. 1.

Major tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 played big roles in turning a federal budget surplus into soaring deficits, according to research by the Congressional Budget Office and others. And by many measures, the U.S. tax burden in near historic lows.

Households earning roughly the national median income paid, on average, 11.1 percent of their income in total federal taxes in 2009, the most recent year for such data. That's the lowest level in more than 30 years, the CBO says.

Nonetheless, House Republicans have placed their highest priority on refusing to raise income tax rates, effectively ranking it above all other goals.

"The president got his tax hikes on Jan. 1," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, is fond of saying. It's a reference to the $620 billion in new revenues, over 10 years, that Republicans were unable to stop because of the "fiscal cliff" law, resolved on New Year's Day.

If it's easy to make a case for higher revenues, the same is true for slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare benefits. For decades, studies have warned of approaching trouble in these popular but costly programs, as health care costs rise and baby boomers begin to retire.

"Both Medicare and Social Security cannot sustain projected long-run program costs under currently scheduled financing, and legislative modifications are necessary to avoid disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers," the Social Security Administration says, summarizing findings by the two programs' trustees.

"The early detection light has been going on for a while, and there has been a failure to act," Social Security trustee Charles P. Blahous recently told a House panel. If lawmakers are to preserve the programs for future retirees, he said, they will have to accept much more "political pain" than officials endured during a 1983 overhaul that included "several extremely controversial measures."

Obama has proposed an often-discussed step, which deals with government accounting in general, not just entitlement programs. If Congress agrees to higher tax revenues, the president said, he would back a slower growth calculation for cost-of-living increases for Social Security benefits, plus higher Medicare premiums for higher-income seniors.

Interest groups have criticized both ideas. AARP calls the slower cost-of-living formula a "harmful change," and urges seniors to oppose it.

American voters can largely blame themselves when Congress is more talk than action on deficit reduction. Americans routinely say they want a smaller federal debt, but not at the cost of programs they hold dear â including Social Security and Medicare.

A CBS News poll in March found that most Americans want to cut spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficit. But 4 in 5 oppose cuts to Social Security or Medicare. And two-thirds are unwilling to have their own taxes raised in the name of deficit reduction.

When Pew Research asked which was more important â reducing the national debt or keeping Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are now â the public sided with safeguarding the benefits programs, 53 percent to 36 percent.

The deficit-spending partisanship continued Wednesday. On a party-line vote, House Ways and Means Committee Republicans passed a bill to protect Social Security recipients and investors in Treasury bonds if the government hits its borrowing limit and can't pay all its bills later this year. Democrats say if the federal government starts reneging on any obligations â even if it pays bondholders â financial markets will lose faith and the economy will tank.

Some Democrats fear a lose-lose situation if they support Obama's proposals. First, they could be attacked from the left for tweaking the programs that many Democrats see as their party's greatest legacy. And second, Republicans might accuse them of "raiding Medicare" in next year's congressional elections. That battle cry proved effective in 2010 after Obama's health care overhaul bill was passed.

Democrats call such tactics shamelessly hypocritical. Republicans, they note, have long called for reining in entitlement spending.

Boehner rebuked a top GOP campaign figure for hinting at a renewal of the "raiding Medicare" attacks. But Reince Priebus, the national Republican Party chairman, seemed eager to revive the question of whether Democratic trims to Medicare's costs amount to an unfair cut in benefits.

9. Read the AP article âDems, GOP talk up deficit reduction, but don't act (Links to an external site.)â by C. Babington (Apr25â13).

a. What are the two basic ways of shrinking a budget deficit?

b. Which of your answers above are Republicans vehemently against? What are the potential negative economic effects of implementing this basic policy?

c. Which of your answers above are Democrats strongly opposed to? What are the potential negative economic effects of implementing this basic policy?

lavenderpug75

NOTE: Under "d" there are two answeres required.

In the first quarter of 2009, President Obama pushed his massive fiscal stimulus package of $862 (It was originally at $787 billion) through the Congress and later passed by the House and the Senate, whose centerpiece was spending most of this stimulus funds in repairing and building infrastructure in transportation, healthcare, science and technology, and education. Pres. Obama also urged to make a modest tax cut for middle-income families making a household income less than $250K per year (it has been modified to $400k starting from January 2013). The push for this combined package of spending and partial tax cut was also criticized by several opponents in politics, academia, and businesses on the ground that the spending was too large under government financing to balance the growing budget deficit and national debt that might threaten future economic stability of the country.

d) Using the Keynesian Cross model diagram (The diagram with 45 degree line by splitting AD (C+I+G+NX) on the vertical axis and RGDP on the horizontal axis, See in Ch. 9,10 & 13 of the textbook) and equation, critically and briefly illustrate the short run and long run economic impact (negative effect on RGDP growth, employment, and other variables) of Recent "Sequester" measure of $85 billion (automatic spending cut of Government spending, G) passed by the US Congress.

(Hint: The impact will be in terms of major macroeconomic variables of US economy such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, interest rates, and inflation). 3 pts.

However, many critics contended that this "sequester" measure is only temporary and too small given the $4T US government budget to have a significant impact on the economy. Therefore, many economists considered this spending cut as too small to bring the economy back into recession. Do you agree or disagree with this contention?

Hint: You may also observe he most recent economic trend and the stock prices in the Wall Street, especially during the end of the second quarter of 2013. 2 pts.

ceruleancod12

TRUE / FALSE

1. True False In the aggregate expenditures model presented in the textbook,

investment is assumed to rise with increases in real GDP and fall with decreases in real GDP.

2. True False When C + I_g = GDP in a private closed economy, S = I_g and there are no unplanned changes in inventories.

3. True False The risk-free interest rate is the rate on long-term U.S. government bonds.

4. True False Bond prices and interest rates are directly or positively related.

5. True False The public debt is the accumulation of all deficits and surpluses that have occurred through time.

6. True False The M₂ money supply may be larger or smaller than the M₁ money supply depending on the size of small-denominated time deposit balances and Money Market Mutual Fund balances held by individuals.

7. True False Excess reserves are the amount by which required reserves exceed actual reserves.

8. True False The public debt is held as Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and U.S. savings bonds.

9. True False The equilibrium price level and equilibrium level of real GDP occur at the intersection of the aggregate demand curve and the aggregate supply curve.

10. True False Investment is highly stable; it increases over time at a very steady rate.

MULTIPLE CHOICE

11. A recessionary expenditure gap is:

A. the amount by which the full-employment GDP exceeds the level of aggregate expenditures.

B. the amount by which equilibrium GDP falls short of the full-employment GDP.

C. the amount by which investment exceeds saving at the full-employment GDP.

D. the amount by which aggregate expenditures exceed the full-employment level of GDP.

12. The multiplier effect indicates that:

A. a decline in the interest rate will cause a proportionately larger increase in investment.

B. a change in spending will change aggregate income by a larger amount.

C. a change in spending will increase aggregate income by the same amount.

D. an increase in total income will generate a larger change in aggregate expenditures.

13. Which one of the following is true about the U.S. Federal Reserve System?

There are 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

B. The head of the U.S. Treasury also chairs the Federal Reserve Board.

C. There are 14 members of the Federal Reserve Board.

D. The Open Market Committee is smaller in size than the Federal Reserve Board.

14. If the nominal interest rate is 18 percent and the real interest rate is 6 percent, the inflation rate is:

A. 18 percent.

B. 24 percent.

C. 12 percent.

D. 6 percent.

15.

Refer to the above diagram for a private closed economy. The equilibrium level of GDP is:

A. $400.

B. $300.

C. $200.

D. $100.

16. Which of the following represents the most expansionary fiscal policy?

A. a $10 billion tax cut

B. a $10 billion increase in government spending

C. a $10 billion tax increase

D. a $10 billion decrease in government spending

17.

Refer to the above table. The economy shown is a:

A. private economy.

B. private open economy.

C. mixed closed economy.

D. mixed open economy.

18. Currency held in the vault of First National Bank is:

A. counted as part of M₁.

B. counted as part of M₂, but not M₁.

C. only counted as part of M₁ if it was deposited into a checking account.

D. not counted as part of the money supply.

19. If the dollar appreciates relative to foreign currencies, we would expect:

A. the multiplier to decrease.

B. the country's exports and imports to both fall.

C. the country's net exports to rise.

D. the country's net exports to fall.

20. The most important determinant of consumption and saving is the:

A. level of bank credit.

B. level of income.

C. interest rate.

D. price level.

21. The multiple by which the commercial banking system can increase the supply of money on the basis of each dollar of excess reserves is equal to:

A. the reciprocal of the required reserve ratio.

B. 1 minus the required reserve ratio.

C. the reciprocal of the income velocity of money.

D. 1/MPS.

22. Which one of the following would not shift the aggregate demand curve?

A. a change in the price level

B. depreciation of the international value of the dollar

C. a decline in the interest rate at each possible price level

D. an increase in personal income tax rate

23. The cyclically-adjusted budget tells us:

A. that in a full-employment economy the Federal budget should be in balance.

B. that tax revenues should vary inversely with GDP.

C. what the size of the Federal budget deficit or surplus would be if the economy was at full

employment.

D. the actual budget deficit or surplus realized in any given year.

24. The aggregate supply curve:

A. is explained by the interest rate, real-balances, and foreign purchases effects.

B. gets steeper as the economy moves from the top of the curve to the bottom of the curve.

C. shows the various amounts of real output that businesses will produce at each price level.

D. is downsloping because real purchasing power increases as the price level falls.

25.

Refer to the above diagram. If the equilibrium price level is P₁, then:

A. aggregate demand is AD₂.

B. the equilibrium output level is Q₃.

C. the equilibrium output level is Q₂.

D. producers will supply output level Q₁

26. Discretionary fiscal policy refers to:

A. any change in government spending or taxes that destabilizes the economy.

B. the authority that the President has to change personal income tax rates.

C. intentional changes in taxes and government expenditures made by Congress to stabilize the economy.

D. the changes in taxes and transfers that occur as GDP changes.

27.

Refer to the above diagram. Which tax system has the most built-in stability?

A. T₄

B. T₃

C. T₂

D. T₁

28.

Refer to the given graph. A shift of the consumption schedule from C₁ to C₂ might be caused by a(n):

A.	recession.

B.	wealth effect of an increase in stock market prices.

C.	increase in income tax rates.

D.	increase in saving.

29. When a bank loan is repaid the supply of money:

A. is constant, but its composition will have changed.

B. is decreased.

C. is increased.

D. may either increase or decrease.

30. The Federal budget deficit is found by:

A. subtracting government tax revenues plus government borrowing from government spending in a particular year.

B. subtracting government tax revenues from government spending in a particular year.

C. cumulating the differences between government spending and tax revenues over all years since the nation's founding.

D. subtracting government revenues from the noninvestment-type government spending in a particular year.

31.

Refer to the above information. Money supply M₁ for this economy is:

A. $ 60.

B. $ 70.

C. $ 130.

D. $ 140.

32. Which of the following statements is true as a result of Federal Reserve efforts to rescue the financial industry from the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008?

From February 2008, to May 2009, the Fed oversaw the consolidation of 20 major financial institutions into fewer than a dozen.

B. From March 2008, to February 2009, the Fed experienced a 50 percent decline in the value of assets held.

C. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed assets more than doubled to nearly $2 trillion.

D. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed lending caused the U.S. public debt to rise by over $1 trillion.

33. Which of the following is the basic economic policy function of the Federal Reserve Banks?

holding the deposits or reserves of commercial banks

B. acting as fiscal agents for the Federal government

C. controlling the supply of money

D. the collection or clearing of checks among commercial banks

34. In a fractional reserve banking system:

A. bank panics cannot occur.

B. the monetary system must be backed by gold.

C. banks can create money through the lending process.

D. the Federal Reserve has no control over the amount of money in circulation.

35.

Refer to the diagram that applies to a private closed economy. The APC is equal to 1 at income level:

36. Assume the Continental National Bank's balance statement is as follows:

Assuming a legal reserve ratio of 20 percent, how much in excess reserves would this bank have after a check for $10,000 was drawn and cleared against it?

A. $ 3,000

B. $ 24,000

C. $ 6,000

D. $ 16,000

37. Answer the question on the basis of the following table for a commercial bank or thrift:

Refer to the above table. When the legal reserve ratio is 25 percent, the excess reserves of this single bank are:

A. $0.

B. $1,000.

C. $5,000.

D. $30,000.

38. Which of the following is a tool of monetary policy?

A. open market operations

B. changes in banking laws

C. changes in tax rates

D. changes in government spending

39. An increase in nominal GDP increases the demand for money because:

A. interest rates will rise.

B. more money is needed to finance a larger volume of transactions.

C. bond prices will fall.

D. the opportunity cost of holding money will decline.

40. Answer the next question on the basis of the following table:

At equilibrium in the above market for money, the total amount of money demanded is:

A. $500.

B. $480.

C. $460.

D. $440.

41. For most financial assets investors must be compensated for:

A. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk.

B. diversifiable risk and time preference.

C. non-diversifiable risk and time preference.

D. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk, and time preference.

42. Reserves must be deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks by:

A. only commercial banks which are members of the Federal Reserve System.

B. all depository institutions, that is, all commercial banks and thrift institutions.

C. state chartered commercial banks only.

D. federally chartered commercial banks only.

43.

Refer to the diagrams. Assuming a constant price level, an increase in aggregate expenditures from AE₁to AE₂ would:

A.	move the economy from A to C along AD₁.

B.	move the economy from C to A along AD₁.

C.	increase aggregate demand from AD₁ to AD₂.

D.	decrease aggregate demand from AD₂ to AD₁.

44. The discount rate is the interest:

A. rate at which the central banks lend to the U.S. Treasury.

B. rate at which the Federal Reserve Banks lend to commercial banks.

C. yield on long-term government bonds.

D. rate at which commercial banks lend to the public.

45. What concept describes how quickly an investment increases in value when interest is paid not only on the original amount invested, but also on the accumulated interest payments?

A. present value

B. future value

C. compound interest

D. real rate of interest

46. The aggregate demand curve:

A. is upsloping because a higher price level is necessary to make production profitable as production costs rise.

B. is downsloping because production costs decline as real output increases.

C. shows the amount of expenditures required to induce the production of each possible level of real output.

D. shows the amount of real output that will be purchased at each possible price level.

47. The Security Market Line depicts the relationship between the:

A. average expected rate of return on stocks and the average expected rate of return on bonds.

B. average expected rate of return of a financial asset and the discount rate.

C. risk level of a financial asset and the prime interest rate.

D. average expected rate of return and risk level of a financial asset.

48. Arbitrage causes all financial assets:

A. of the same risk level to have the same price.

B. to have the same expected rate of return.

C. to have the same beta.

D. of the same risk level to have the same average expected rate of return.

49.

Refer to the diagrams. The numbers in parentheses after the AD₁, AD₂, and AD₃ labels indicate the levels of investment spending associated with each curve. All figures are in billions. If the money supply is MS₁ and the goal of the monetary authorities is full-employment output Q_f, they should:

A.	increase the money supply from $80 to $100.

B.	increase the money supply from $80 to $120.

C.	maintain the money supply at $80.

D.	decrease the money supply from $80 to $60.

50. Given the expected rate of return on all possible investment opportunities in the economy:

A. an increase in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

B. a decrease in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

C. a change in the real interest rate will have no impact on the level of investment.

D. an increase in the real interest rate will increase the level of investment.

END OF THE EXAM

ECO 1302 Lecture Notes - Lecture 62: United States Dollar, Business Cycle

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