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Lecture 7

CSC302H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Vital Signs


Department
Computer Science
Course Code
CSC302H1
Professor
Matt Medland
Lecture
7

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RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk = the possibility of suering loss
oRisk itself is not bad  essential to progress
oChallenge: manage the amount of risk
Useful concepts
o
Risk Exposure=p ∙ E
p
 probability of risk occurring
E
 the negative eect once risk occurs
units can be in dollars, hours, etc.
Calculated for each risk
o
Risk Reduce Leverage=
(
R EbeforeR Eafter
)
Cost of Intervention
Calculated for each mitigation action
Shows the Reduction of RE per dollar spent on cost of
intervention
i.e. Return on Investment: RRL < 1  not
worth
Ex.
oRisk Reduction Leverage (RRL)
MIDTERM  CONCRETE EXAMPLE FOR RRL
Risk Assessment
oQuantitative:
Measure risk exposure using standard cost &
probability measures
Note: probabilities rarely independent
oQualitative
Develop a risk exposure matrix –ex. NASA
Top Software Engineering risks
oPersonnel Shortfalls
Prevention: use top talent, team building, more
training
oUnrealistic schedules/budgets
Prevention: use multisource estimation, designing to
cost, requirements scrubbing
oDeveloping the wrong software functions
Prevention: better requirements analysis
oDeveloping the wrong User Interface
Prevention: prototyping, scenarios, task analysis
oGold Plating
Prevention: requirements scrubbing, cost bene7t
analysis
oContinuing stream of requirements changes
Prevention: high change threshold, information hiding,
incremental development
oShortfalls in externally furnished components
Prevention: early benchmarking, inspections,
compatibility analysis
oShortfalls in externally performed tasks
Prevention: pre-award audits, competitive designs
oReal-time performance shortfalls
Prevention: target analysis, simulations, benchmarks,
models
oStraining computer science capabilities
Prevention: technical analysis, checking scienti7c
literature
Principles of Risk Management
oGlobal Perspective – view software in context of larger
system
For any opportunity, identify both:
Potential value
Potential impact of adverse result
oForward Looking View
Anticipate possible outcomes
Identify uncertainty
Manage resources accordingly
oOpen Communications
Free-9owing information at all project levels
Value the individual voice  unique knowledge and
insights
oIntegrated Management
Project management is risk management
oContinuous Process
Continually identify and manage risks
Maintain constant vigilance
oShared Product Vision
Everybody understands the mission
Common purpose
Collective responsibility
Shared ownership
Focus on results
oTeam Work
Work cooperatively to achieve the common goal
Pool talent, skills and knowledge
Fault Tree Analysis
oEvents that result from a combination of causes
Continuous Risk Management
oIdentify
Search for and locate risks before they become
problems
oAnalyse
Transform risk data into decision-making information
For each risk evaluate
Impact
Probability
Timeframe
Classify and Prioritise risks
oPlan
Choose risk mitigation action
oTrack
Monitor risk indicators
Reassess risks
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