PSY 1305 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Hindsight Bias, Illusory Correlation, Scientific Method

• School: Baylor University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSY 1305
• Professor: Danielle Young

Document Summary

Humans cannot rely solely on intuition and common sense. Three phenomena illustrate this: hindsight bias: tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we could have predi(cid:272)ted it; (cid:862)i k(cid:374)e(cid:449) it all alo(cid:374)g(cid:863) phe(cid:374)o(cid:373)e(cid:374)o(cid:374) Judgmental overconfidence: thinking you know more than you actually do; this occurs in academic and social behavior: tendency to perceive patterns to make sense of their world (random events); coincidence error. Why is intuition overused and errors made: hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events often lead us to overestimate our intuition, but scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from illusion. Curiosity: having an interest to explore and understand the world without misleading or being misled, questions to consider. Skepticism: asking questions about behavior and mental processes. Humility: being aware that mistakes are possible, willingness to be surprised. Critical thinking: carefully forming and evaluating knowledge.