ECON 1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 21: Stock Market Crash, Potential Output, Fiscal Policy

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26 May 2018
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#21 Tuesday 4/17 (Ch.33 Business Cycle)
Economic Fluctuations
Why do recessions/expansions exist?
How does the model of AD and AS explain economic fluctuations
We have a recession if
AD shifts left or
AS shifts left
In the short run: less output (and therefore fewer jobs and more unemployment)
In the long run, the equilibrium is restored
Examples of Recessions Caused by AD Shift
Recession in Europe
Drop in investor confidence (investment is the most volatile part of AD because it depends on
expectations)
Decline in government expenditures
Stock market crash (most of us own a piece of the stock market in their retirement savings, so people
feel less wealthy so they spend less, postpone purchases)
Stock market crash
1. C
falls, so AD
shifts left
2. Short term equilibrium at B. Y
lower, unemployment higher
3. Over time, SRAS
shifts right, until long term equilibrium at
C. Y
and unemployment back at initial levels because we are at the
potential output level.
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Document Summary

How does the model of ad and as explain economic fluctuations. In the short run: less output (and therefore fewer jobs and more unemployment) In the long run, the equilibrium is restored. Drop in investor confidence (investment is the most volatile part of ad because it depends on expectations) Stock market crash (most of us own a piece of the stock market in their retirement savings, so people feel less wealthy so they spend less, postpone purchases) Stock market crash: c falls, so ad shifts left, short term equilibrium at b. Y lower, unemployment higher: over time, sras shifts right, until long term equilibrium at, y and unemployment back at initial levels because we are at the potential output level. Output and unemployment go back to their natural level. The housing market played a central role in this recession. Millions of homeowners underwater owed more than house was worth.

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