EPS C20 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Shinkansen, Earthquake Early Warning (Japan)
19 Dec 2017
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To be useful, we have to exactly pinpoint: We haven"t learned how to predict these 3 points. We need to have at least one measurable precursor, which consistently occurs before each eq. We don"t know all the processes which happen in a fault. Dr. browning predicted an m>6 eq would occur dec 3 1990. Probabilistic assessment of eq occurrence (odds, chances) 72% probability one or more m 6. 7 eq from 2014 to 2043 in the sf bay area region. Time difference in p and s wave can be used as a warning. P waves arrive first, but s waves are more destructive. Multiple stations detect p-wave arrival and s-wave arrival. Combine information and update alarm everywhere. First operational eew system in the world specific for trains. When eq detected, cut off power to train activate breaks. 1985: mexico city eq m = 8. 0 >5000 people killed. First operational public eew system in the world.
