POLSCI 242 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Path Dependence, Incumbent, 6 Years
8 May 2018
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POLISCI 10.28 Lecture Notes
From reading (Highton):
2014 Senate election outcomes determined by:
o Constitutional requirements of equality for state representation in the Senate
o Division of seats into three classes
o The set of states holding election
Constitutional design of Senate
o All states receive 2 Senators
▪ Typical state is less Democratic and more Republican than the overall country
▪ Votes for Senate does not give equal vote to all individuals
o Senate term length is 6 years
o Division of Senate seats into 3 classes = 1/3 of the seats come up for election every 2 years
▪ Class 2 seats notably more Republican than the other 2 classes
From reading (Franklin):
Candidate visibility is an advantage that almost always favors the incumbent
Moderate drop of visibility during midpoint of Senate term
Rise in the two years leading up to reelection
US Senate Elections (Lecture)
Review of incumbent advantage in Congress
o Senate reelection is a little lower than House reelection
o Senate has a larger pool of candidates (much more diverse) – as opposed to House districts
o Ex: Partisanship of House Districts and States, Democratic Presidential Vote (2012)
▪ 10% of House elections were lopsided
▪ 21% of Senate elections were lopsided
▪ Partisan advantage much more influential in the House
▪ Partisanship does not guarantee much when running for Senate
Federalist No. 62 and 63
o James Madison (author of Constitution)
o Equality of representation amongst the states (each state guaranteed 2 senators)
▪ Madison’s explanation for why this matters:
• Balance of federal and national interests
• Agreement of popular majority (House) and the majority of states (Senate)
o Drastic change from the Articles of Confederation, which revolved
around the states
o Senate has lengthier terms (6-year term)
▪ Responsibility
• Policy implementation and effects take a long time to manifest
• Hold Senators accountable for their actions
▪ Six-year terms today?
o General role of the Senate
▪ Famous analogy of Madison comparing the Senate to a saucer
▪ Stability within the Government (with the lengthy terms)
▪ Slow government action, a body that doesn’t do whatever the popular people want
▪ Designed inefficiency – Senate was designed to not be very responsive
▪ Divided party control (one party controls the House and one party controls the
Senate)
National partisan tide
o Bias (shifting) in favor of one party
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
2014 senate election outcomes determined by: constitutional requirements of equality for state representation in the senate, division of seats into three classes, the set of states holding election. Candidate visibility is an advantage that almost always favors the incumbent. Moderate drop of visibility during midpoint of senate term. Rise in the two years leading up to reelection. 62 and 63: equality of representation amongst the states (each state guaranteed 2 senators) National partisan tide: bias (shifting) in favor of one party, national forces predominating large turnover rates incumbency advantage weakens in the face of a stronger consideration for partisanship. 2016 senate elections: gop 54 seats, dem 44 seats + 2 independents. Role of the presidential election: unpopular president is negative influence for president"s party. If institutional design matters, the mandate requirement is not met: but (referring to the discussion of federalist papers), senate was not designed to meet the mandate requirement anyway.
