MSOM 306 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Mean Squared Error, Average Absolute Deviation, Standard Error
4 Oct 2016
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Took business strategies that airlines and hotels use. Opponent, day of week, time of the year. Global portfolio includes parks in hong kong, paris, tokyo, orlando, and anaheim. Revenues are derived from people-- how many visitors and how they spend their money. Daily management report contains only the forecast and actual attendance at each park. Disney generates daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecasts. Forecasts used by labor management, maintenance, operations, finance, and park scheduling. Forecasts used to adjust opening times, rides, shows, staffing levels, and guests admitted. 20% of customers come from outside the usa. Economic model includes gdp, cross-exchange rates, arrivals into the usa. Staff of 35 analysts and 70 field ppl survey 1 milion park guests, employees, and travel professionals each year. Inputs to the forecasting model include airline specials, federal. Reserve policies, wall street trends, vacations/holiday schedules for. Average forecast error for the 5-year forecast is 5%
