STAT-S 300 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Conditional Probability

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25 Aug 2016
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What is conditional probability: conditional probability- probability that one event happens given that another event is already known to have happened. Suppose we know event a has happened. Probability of event b happens given that a has happened. Conditional probability and independence: independent events- two events a and b are independent if the occurrence of one event has no effect on chance of other event happening. A and b are independent if p(a|b) = p(a) and p(b|a) = p(b) A and b are independent if p(a b) = p(a) p(b) Tree diagrams and the general multiplication rule: tree diagram- way to model chance behavior that involves sequence of outcomes, general multiplication rule- if not independent, p(a b) = p(a) p(b|a) Calculating conditional probabilities: conditional probability formula- to find p(b|a), use p(cid:4666)b|a(cid:4667)=p(cid:4666)(cid:2885) (cid:2886)(cid:4667)

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