MANGT 421 Lecture 4: Chapter 4 Review
8 Feb 2017
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Document Summary
Forecasting time horizons: short-range forecast up to 1 year, usually less than 3 months. Purchasing, job scheduling, job assignments, production levels. Usually more accurate than long term: medium-range forecast 3 months to 3 years. Sales, production, planning, budgeting: long-range forecast 3 years or more. New product planning, facility location, research and development. Introduction and growth require longer forecasts than maturity and decline in the product life cycle. Types of forecasts: economic address business cycle, inflation rate, money and supply, housing starts, technological predict rate of technological progress, impacts development of new products, demand predicts sales of existing products and services. The 7 steps to forecasting: determine the use, select items to be forecasted, determine the time horizon, select the models, gather data needed, make the forecast, validate and implement results. Product family and aggregated forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts. Forecasting approaches: qualitative methods used when situation is vague with little data.
