DANCEST 805 Lecture Notes - Lecture 18: Aggregate Supply, Moving Average, Gauge Theory

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18 Oct 2020
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Forward buying buying large quantities on cheaper prices and storing them until used in futur: laws of forecasting. Law 1: forecast are almost always wrong used to get close estimates. Law 2: forecast for the near term is more accurate. Law 3: forecast for groups of products or services tend to be more accurate. Demand, supply or price for a single item is usually influenced from many factors. Ex: demand for green cars and overall demand for cars. Very expensive and time consuming: delphi method experts work individually to develop forecasts then share them with the other experts and then they modify together until a consensus is reached. Expensive, time consuming but when done correctly can be very accurate. Life cycle analogy used when the product is new. The technique is based on the fact that many products have the a fairly well-defined life cycle. Last period simplest, uses demand for current period as a forecast for next period.

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