DANCEST 805 Lecture Notes - Lecture 28: Moving-Average Model, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing
Get access
Related Documents
Related Questions
Question 1
In order to compete effectively in todayâs increasingly globalised market, many companies have used features related to environmental sustainability to âwinâ new customers.
In relation to the company you work in or one that you are familiar with,
(a) Explain the term âsustainable business strategyâ and how this strategy relates to operations and supply chain management.
(8 marks)
(b) Identify an operations and supply chain-related "disruption" that impacted the company. What could the company have done to minimise the impact of this type of disruption prior to it occurring?
(7 marks)
(c) You have recently been appointed as the production manager of the company. To meet the demands of its global market, the company has set up production locations in two different countries. One is located in the USA while the other is located in a Southeast Asian country. You want to find out what is the productivity of the current operations at the two production locations. You have obtained the following results from the production supervisor (Table 1).
Table 1
*FC â Foreign Currency where $1 = FC 10
USA | Southeast Asia | |
Sales (units) | 100,000 | 20,000 |
Labour (hours) | 20,000 | 15,000 |
Raw materials (currency) | $20,00 | *FC 20,000 |
Capital equipment (hours) | 60,00 | 5,000 |
(i) Calculate the multifactor productivity figures for labour and capital together. Do the results make sense?
(5 marks)
(ii) Calculate raw material productivity figures (units/$) and explain any differences in these figures.
(5 marks)
Question 2
(a) A Japanese fast food restaurant, OiShi is concerned about its ability to provide quality service as they continue to grow and attract more customers. Its management has collected data from Friday and Saturday nights, its busiest times of the week. During these nights, about 75 customers arrive per hour for service. Given the number of tables and chairs, and the typical time it takes to serve a customer, the restaurant can serve on average about 100 customers per hour.
Analyse the restaurant service process in these nights where the data are collected and comment on whether the services are in the zone of service, the critical zone, or the zone of non-service? (Refer to Figure 2 when providing your answers)
Figure 2: Relationship between the Rate of Service Utilisation (r) and service quality
(4 marks)
The management anticipates that the restaurantâs demand will double in one year as long as it can provide good service to its customers. How much will the restaurant have to increase its service capacity to stay out of the critical zone?
(4 marks)
(b) Describe the characteristics of service processes of a typical fast food restaurant based on your service encounters.
(10 marks)
(c) Examine the strategies to manage service encounters. You should provide details on any TWO (2) possible customer-introduced variability in the service processes and propose THREE (3) accommodating strategies to effectively address these variabilities.
(7 marks)
Question 3
(a) Consider your organisation or one that you are familiar with that plays a role in the global supply chain network. This organisation can be a supplier, manufacturer, distributor, logistics service provider or retailer in a particular industry (e.g. fast-moving consumer goods, electronics, oil and gas, and pharmaceuticals). In your answer, you should relate the concepts and strategies in operations and supply chain management to the work environment.
Explain how the aggregate operations plan can help match supply with demand and optimise operational costs in this organisation.
(4 marks)
Provide TWO (2) strategies that can be used to influence demand and TWO (2) strategies that can be used to adjust capacity to match demand.
(8 marks)
(b) The development of web-based tools has allowed companies to collaborate on a larger scale and perform its operations and supply chain activities with greater ease. Demonstrate how collaborative techniques can be used to forecast demand. You should provide details such as the various stages of activities that are involved.
(8 marks)
Discuss the risks of being too reliant on the internet as a collaboration tool in demand forecasting and management.
(5 marks)
Question 4
Kee Wah Store sells a variety of exquisite European cookies and candies to the consumer market. The demand for cookies and candies is volatile and varies from month to month. The store orders from its suppliers. The lead time is normally one month, mainly consisting of the sea freight transportation time from Europe to Singapore. The store keeps a certain level of inventory at its warehouse.
The total demand for chocolate cookies is estimated to be 7,200 packets a year. The chocolate cookie packet is sourced from the supplier at $5 per packet and is sold to the end consumer at $15 per packet. It costs $100 to place an order to the supplier, and costs 20% of unit cost to store a packet of chocolate cookies for one year.
(a) Give FOUR (4) reasons why Kee Wah Store needs to maintain some inventory at its warehouse.
(8 marks)
(b) Examine the inventory situation for Kee Wah Store by applying the EOQ model to solve for order quantity and reorder point. What is the annual ordering cost, annual holding cost and total annual cost?
(10 marks)
(c) One supplier, Nee Ann Import Inc., approaches Kee Wah Store and proposes that it could shorten the lead time from one month to one week using airfreight.
What are the factors that Kee Wah Store needs to consider before deciding to accept or reject Nee Ann Importâs offer?
----- END OF PAPER -----
(7 marks)
Can someone help with this case please, and:
Fill in all the blanks spaces in the spreadsheet for the 2017 column and the 2017 %rev column
Balance the B/S
Answer all questions in full sentence format
Please put in the correct number for forecasted PP&E based on narrative (I highlighted the phrase in the narrative)
Show work for how you calculated the forecasted interest for 2017.
Thank you so much for all your help.
Q.
After the financial analysis based on 2016 preliminary estimates was completed, a number of changes were adopted to improve financial and business results for S&S Air during 2016. The customer that awarded the large 40 aircraft order agreed to make interim payments as finished aircraft were delivered (for a price concession). Revenue was revised up slightly due to updated marketing plans. Expenses were trimmed and controls were established that greatly reduced on hand inventory needs. A portion of the line of credit was converted to a 5 year, fixed rate loan. Cash on hand and general liquidity was forecasted to improve to acceptable levels by the end of the year.
Mark and Marie approached Chris about creating a forecast for 2017. They had learned the value of the financial analysis done for 2016 and wanted to get a look at any issues or problems that might be looming in the future. Of particular concern was the continuing need for external funds as the firm continued to grow. The general consensus of Mark and Marie was that S&S Air should realize an increase in revenue of 17% in 2017 from the 2016 results, based on anticipated demand of aircraft. It was felt expenses would change by the same percent of sales as incurred in 2016. However, it was estimated that annual depreciation in 2017 would increase 70% (to a total of $1,075,000), due to the substantial increase in assets that were going to be needed. Finally, Chris said that her banking contract indicted that interest expense should be about 8% of both notes payable and long term debt in 2017.
By the end of 2016, the firm would be operating at capacity; it was estimated that further growth in 2017 would require $6,500,000 (including all depreciation â that is, adding $6.5 million to the 2016 Net PP&E to derive PP&E for 2017) in plant upgrades and additions to meet anticipated production volume. Everyone felt that all other asset categories (including cash) and current liabilities (including the line of credit) would change by percent of revenue. Both owners were concerned about where any needed external financing would come from. Neither was interested in raising any further equity, and agreed that they would likely secure long term financing for any external funds needed. The plan was to pay dividends totaling $400,000 in 2017.
Chris knew that a key exhibit would be the forecast mode. She planned to set up the model so that a key input would be the sales growth forecast. The âplugâ to reconcile the balance sheet would be long term debt.
Q U E S T I O N S (please use full sentences)
1) Completed forecast model. Fill in all blanks for the 2017 and 2017 % of rev columns.
2) Compare PM, ROA, and ROE from 2016 to 2017. Why the differences?
3) Compare debt ratios from 2016 to 2017. Why the differences?
4) Compare total asset turnover from 2016 to 2017. Why the difference? What observations can you make regarding capacity utilization from 2016 to 2017?
5) Estimate the maximum revenue possible given the new level of assets in 2017, based on TATO in 2016 (at full capacity).
6) If COGS could be decreased by 1% of revenue, how much increase in EBIT would result? Express the change in EBIT in both dollar terms and % change.
7) Do a DuPont analysis on S&S Air for both 2016 and 2017. If the owners asked you for any issues or concerns about the basic results forecasted for 2017, what would you tell them? Consider operating, investing, and financing issues.
7a) Operating comments:
7b) Investing comments:
7c) Financing comments:
Income statement | 2016 | % rev | 2017 | % rev | ||
Sales | $21,566,000 | 100.0% | 17%% | |||
COGS | 14,786,000 | 68.6% | % of rev | 68.6% | ||
Other expenses | 2,375,000 | 11.0% | % of rev | 11.0% | ||
Depreciation | 625,000 | 2.9% | given | 1,075,000 | ||
EBIT | 3,780,000 | 17.5% | calc | |||
Interest | 437,000 | 2.0% | given | 8.0% | ||
Taxable income | 3,343,000 | 15.5% | calc | |||
Taxes (40%) | 1,337,200 | 6.2% | calc TI * tax rate | 40.0% | ||
Net income | 2,005,800 | 9.3% | calc | |||
Dividends | 375,000 | 1.7% | given | 400,000 | ||
Add to RE | 1,630,800 | 7.6% | calc |
B A L A N C E S H E E T | ||||||
2016 | % rev | 2017 | % | |||
Current Assets | ||||||
Cash | 425,000 | 2.0% | % of rev | 2.0% | ||
Accounts rec. | 855,000 | 4.0% | % of rev | 4.0% | ||
Inventory | 689,000 | 3.2% | % of rev | 3.2% | ||
Total CA | 1,969,000 | 9.1% | calc | |||
Fixed assets | ||||||
Net PP&E | 9,873,000 | 45.8% | given | 6,500,000 | ||
Total Assets | 11,842,000 | 54.9% | calc | |||
Current Liabilities | ||||||
Accounts Payable | 727,000 | 3.4% | % of rev | 3.4% | ||
Notes Payable | 1,467,000 | 6.8% | % of rev | 6.8% | ||
Total CL | 2,194,000 | 10.2% | calc | |||
Long-term debt | 2,908,800 | 13.5% | PLUG | |||
TOTAL CL + LTL | 5,102,800 | |||||
Shareholder Equity | ||||||
Common stock | 120,000 | 0.6% | no change | |||
Retained earnings | 6,619,200 | 30.7% | +2017 RE | |||
Total Equity | 6,739,200 | 31.2% | calc | |||
Total L&E | 11,842,000 | 54.9% | calc |
Ratio Analysis | ||
2016 | 2017 | |
PM | ||
ROA | ||
ROE | ||
Debt / Equity | ||
Debt / Total Assets | ||
Equity Multiplier | ||
Total Asset TO |
Thank you