DANCEST 805 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Decision-Making, Conjunction Fallacy, Bounded Rationality
Document Summary
Decision making: involves selecting one option from several possibilities. Structuring the decision: decision structuring = decision maker needs to determine a way of managing info. Making a final choice: selecting among the final set of options. Evaluating: reflect on the process and identify those aspects that could be improved, as well as those which can be used again. Biases = ways of thinking that lead to systematic errors. Cognitive illusions = systematic biases and errors in human decision making. Heuristics = strategies that ignore part of the info, with the goal of making decisions more quickly, frugally and/or accurately than more complex methods purpose: reduce the effort associated with a task. Conjunction fallacy= the mistaken belief that the conjunction or combination of two events (a and b) is more likely than one of the two events on its own. Support theory: states that any given event will appear more or less likely depending on how it is described.
