DANCEST 805 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Confirmation Bias, Life Insurance, Mental Models
Document Summary
Forming generalisations (which may be probable but not certain) from examples (specific general) Inductive strength argument has strength if it is improbable (not impossible) for the premises to be true & the conclusion to be false. Apply relationship found to determine a solution. Verbal ( a is to b what c is to ___) & pictorial analogies. Ease of reasoning depends on complexity of the problem. 2-4-6 task (wason): peeps are given a bunch of numbers and they have to determine the rule only by offering. People tend to first develop a general idea of the rule to then construct examples examples, not by asking direct questions about the rule. Confirmation bias: people try to confirm their rule is true rather than trying to test/ falsify it (= fallacy of affirming the consequent) better off testing it with counterexamples of the assumed rule. Conclusion represents info that was already implicit in the premises (no new info added)
