ECON 1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 20: Auguste Comte, Backcasting, Delphi Method
Document Summary
Scenario types and techniques: towards a user"s guide b rjeson et al, 2006. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used. Scenario: description of possible future states and descriptions of developments. We have chosen to use a broad scenario concept that also covers predictive approaches with sensitivity testing. There is no consensus on the scenario typologies. Amara: explore possible, probable and/or preferable futures. Marien: identifying present trends", panoramic view", and questioning all the others". Dreborg: predictive (forecasting), eventualities (external scvenarios) and visionary (backcasting) Habernas: distinguished on the function of the knowledge generated: technical (=objective trends), hermeneutic/practical (increasing common understanding of social reality) and emancipatory (widening perceived scope of options). Inayatullah: predictive-empirical, cultural-interpretative (understanding, negotiating and acting to achieve desired future), and critical-post-structuralist (focus is on analysing historical context/power relations and emphasizing difficulties in statements regarding future developments).
