BA 30310 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Global Business Network, There Are Known Knowns, Delta Ii
15 Jun 2016
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Uncertainty- you"ve defined the variable but don"t know its value. Rolling normal dice and not knowing what values you will get. Ambiguity- when you are not sure what the variables are. Rolling 20-sided dice (w/o knowing they will be 20-sided) and still not knowing what values you will get. Level 1: clear enough future (single view of future) Ex:mcdonalds opening up new restaurant- can get pretty good forecast on demand b/c they"re well established, norm. Level 2: alternative futures (limited set of possible future outcomes, one of which will occur) Level 4: true uncertainty (not even a range of future outcomes) Deductive method: (double uncertainty matrix- global business network)- best when 2 key uncertainties will drive future outcomes. Identify top 5 uncertainties i: prioritize 2 uncertainties to create a matrix, define conditions within each quadrant of the matrix, develop stories iv. 1. Alternative futures: (used by institute for the future)- best when major technological or societal transitions are likely.
