POLS 1155 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Guerrilla Warfare

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Uses data from 1945-1999 on the 161 countries that had a population of at least half a million in 1990. The prevalence of civil war in the 1990s was not due to the end of the cold war and associated changes in the international system: not true that a greater degree of ethnic or religious diversity. Little evidence that one can predict where a civil war will break out nu looking for where ethnic or other broad political grievances are strongest. Main factor was conditions that favor insurgency. Technology of military conflict characterized by small, lightly armed bands practicing guerilla warfare from rural base areas. Can be harnessed to diverse political agendas, motivations and grievances. Financially, organizationally and politically weak governments allow for insurgency to be more possible. Increased amount of civil wars was not because of the cold war. Some say civil wars start because of nationalism. If wars are fought on behalf of nationalism, then even more insurgency.

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