POL-UA 700 Lecture 24: Lecture 24: Final Exam Review
14 Dec 2016
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{(fake news | evil), (fake news | real); (take seriously | fake news), p(evil | fake news) = 0. 3} P (e | f) = [p(f | e) * p(e)] / [p(f | e) * p(e) + p(f | r) * p(r)] = (1 * 0. 3) / [(1 * 0. 3) + (1 * 0. 7)] = 0. 3. Here you need to look at the expected utility of the actions available to the obama administration. They have no clue which state of nature they are in. Payoff (fake news | take seriously) = 21. Payoff (fake news | take seriously) = 25. Payoff (not fake news | take seriously) = 0. Payoff (fake news | take seriously) > payoff (not fake news | take seriously) {(fake news | evil), (no fake news | real); (take seriously | fake news), p(evil | fake news) = 1} Pr (emine will take action a) = p. Pr (satyanath will take action c) = q.
