ECON 174 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Prediction Interval, Ex-Ante, If And Only If

• School: Santa Clara University
• Department: Economics
• Course: ECON 174
• Professor: Schlapfer

Document Summary

Ex ante forecasts are made using info available in advance. Ex post forecasts are made using later info on predictors. Useful for studying behavior of forecasting models. Trend, seasonal, and calendar variables are all known in advance, so these don"t need to be forecast. Assumes possible scenarios for the predictor variables. Prediction intervals for scenario based forecasts do not include the uncertainty associated with the future values of the predictor variables. If getting forecasts of predictors is difficult, you can use lagged predictors instead. A different model for reach forecast horizon h, Beer2