ECON 200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Risk Neutral

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A dollar you receive today is worth more than a dollar you receive one year from today. A dollar you receive with certainty is worth more than a dollar you might or might not receive. Expected value is the average of each possible outcome of a future event, weighted by its probability of occurring. You win if the number is 4 or less and you lose if the number is 5 or more. Expected value = (2/3 x ) + (1/3 x -) = - = . Two events are independent if the fact that the first occurred does not affect the probability the second will occur. The probability two independent events will both occur is the product of their probabilities. We draw one card from a deck of cards, put it back in the deck, and draw a second card. Probability we draw an ace both times = 1/13 x 1/13 = 1/169.

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