ECON 200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Federal Open Market Committee, Fiscal Policy, Open Market Operation

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14 Dec 2019

School

University of Arizona

Department

Economics

Course

ECON 200

Professor

Chandini Sankaran

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ECON 200 Full Course Notes

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On average over the past 50 years, production in the u. s. economy has grown by about 3 percent per year. Economic activity fluctuates about its long-run trend. Economic outcomes and concerns differ between the short run and long run- Prior to the great depression economists were concerned with long-run macroeconomic issues. Recessions were viewed as natural phenomena that were inevitable and uncontrollable of the 1930s. No previous recession matched the duration and depths of the great depression. Before the 1940s very little reliable, comprehensive data were available to document the movement of these important macroeconomic variables. The general theory of employment, interest and money (1936): The long-run is a misleading guide to current affairs. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us when the storm is long past, the ocean will be flat . The central bank of the united states: Seven board of governors (2006 2014)

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Article:

INTRA, Portugal--Leaders of the world's top central banks warned Wednesday that escalating trade conflicts could ricochet through financial markets and hurt the world economy, potentially prolonging the era of ultralow interest rates.

Rising tensions over trade come at an awkward time for major central banks, which have started moving away from easy-money policies introduced since the global financial crisis.

In a moderated discussion in Portugal, the heads of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia called for calm and warned that the costs of further escalation could be high.

Global stock markets sagged this week after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a fresh round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, upping the ante after he previously approved tariffs on $50 billion of goods.

"It's very worrisome and again, I can't see any positive," said ECB President Mario Draghi, who was hosting the event, Europe's answer to the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Mr. Draghi warned that disputes over trade have created "considerable uncertainty" for the 19-nation eurozone economy, which has slowed sharply in recent months.

The European Union said Wednesday it would impose tariffs on U.S. goods worth around [euro]2.8 billion ($3.2 billion) in response to American import tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the EU's move is unlikely to discourage the U.S. from a second round of tariffs, possibly targeted at European autos, which would hit exports worth 0.3% of the EU's economic output, said Oliver Rakau, an economist with Oxford Economics in Frankfurt.

In a shift reflecting those concerns, Mr. Draghi warned Tuesday that the bank could delay plans announced only last week to phase out its [euro]2.5 trillion bond-buying program and suggested the timing of a first interest-rate increase could be pushed back.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned in the discussion that changes in trade policy "could cause us to have to question the outlook." The Fed last week raised short-term interest rates and signaled a quicker pace of interest-rate increases to keep the U.S. economy from overheating.

While the tensions haven't yet dented U.S. economic growth, Mr. Powell said businesses increasingly were expressing concerns to the Fed about how the conflict might affect their plans for investment and hiring.

For Japan, whose central bank maintained its aggressive stimulus policies last week to support a softening economy, the trade conflict is "a matter of great concern," said Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda.

The indirect impact on Japan's economy could be "quite significant if the escalation between China and the U.S. continues," Mr. Kuroda said, because it could affect the Asian supply chain centered on countries like Japan and Taiwan and across southeast Asia.

While the tariffs themselves might not derail the global economic recovery, the fallout could be magnified by investors through financial markets, said Australia's central bank governor, Philip Lowe.

"I believe what is happening [on trade] is incredibly worrying," Mr. Lowe said. "It wouldn't take that much for financial markets to turn this into a very big global event."

The problem for central banks, in Japan and elsewhere, is that they appear to have little ammunition left to deal with any new economic downturn after years of aggressive stimulus. The value of assets held by the Bank of Japan is set to exceed the nation's annual economic output over the coming months, while the ECB's balance sheet also will continue to grow through the end of this year. Both central banks are still holding short-term interest rates below zero.

Asked how the ECB could respond to any new recession, Mr. Draghi said he didn't expect economic growth to turn negative between now and 2020.

Mr. Powell acknowledged that central banks would have less capacity to fight any new recession because interest rates are already close to zero. The U.S. government also has less scope to increase spending than in the past, though it still has room to react, he said.

"I really hope that this escalation could be rescinded and a normal trading relationship between the U.S. and China would prevail," Mr. Kuroda said.

As there any positive outcomes of rising trade tensions, according to central bankers? . What actions would central banks in theory launch, in theory, to counteract any problems with economic growth in their countries? Why are central banks worried about these policy moves at this point in time?

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1. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the level of overall spendingin the economy by changes in:
A) the interest rate.
B) the money supply.
C) banking regulations.
D) taxes and spending.

2. Economists have identified several consecutive months of fallingemployment and forecasts for the next few months are for more ofthe same. At what point in the business cycle is the economyapparently located?
A) recession
B) expansion
C) business cycle peak
D) business cycle trough

3. The onset of the Great Depression:
A) was not a shock to anyone since most economists predicted theâroaring 20sâ were bound to end in disaster.
B) created a disagreement between the Hoover administration andconventional economists because Hoover wanted the government tointervene much more quickly than most others.
C) came as a considerable shock to the conventional wisdom ofeconomics at that time and opened the door for critiques ofmainstream thought by economists like JM Keynes.
D) was in 1918 at the end of World War I.

4. When economists measure economic growth, they often use:
A) the inflation rate.
B) the unemployment rate.
C) nominal GDP.
D) real GDP.

5. In a typical business cycle, the business cycle peak isimmediately followed by the:
A) recession.
B) business cycle trough.
C) expansion.
D) depression.

6. Suppose an economy experiences rising total output accompaniedby increasing employment, this is generally known as:
A) stagflation.
B) recession.
C) inflation.
D) expansion.

7. Controlling interest rates is an example of:
A) fiscal policy.
B) tax policy.
C) monetary policy.
D) exchange rate policy.

8. The alternation between recessions and expansions is known asthe:
A) unemployment rate.
B) long-run economic growth.
C) business cycle.
D) macroeconomy.

9. A recession in America is typically associated with:
A) a falling unemployment rate.
B) a decrease in the number of people living in poverty.
C) a decrease in the percentage of Americans with healthinsurance.
D) an increase in corporate profits.

10. The purpose of macroeconomic policy is to:
A) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate.
B) reduce the severity of recessions.
C) rein in excessively strong expansions.
D) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate and to reduce theseverity of recessions.

11. The trade balance is the difference between the value ofthe:
A) trade deficit and the budget deficit.
B) goods and services that one country sells to other countries andthe value of the goods and services it buys in return.
C) exchange rates of two countries that are engaged ininternational trade.
D) national debt and the foreign debt.

12. Increasing the total amount of available productive resourcesis the focus of __________.
A) macroeconomics
B) fiscal policy
C) monetary policy
D) microeconomics

13. The point on a business cycle when real GDP stops rising andbegins falling is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

14. During a recession, one will often observe:
A) aggregate output rising.
B) unemployment rates will be increasing while aggregate output isfalling.
C) employment rates will be rising.
D) zero unemployment rates.

15. Monetary policy involves:
A) changes in government spending.
B) changes in government tax receipts.
C) changes in the quantity of money.
D) changes in tax rates.

16. The trough of the business cycle:
A) comes right after the expansion phase.
B) comes before the recession phase.
C) is a temporary maximum level of real GDP.
D) is a temporary minimum level of real GDP.

17. Which one of the following statements about the U.S. economy isnot accurate?
A) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratelower than the average annual growth rate of population.
B) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratehigher than the average annual growth rate of population.
C) Since the Second World War, macroeconomic policy has helped makethe economy more stable.
D) Long-run growth per capita is the key to higher wages and arising standard of living.

18. An economic recovery is all of the following except:
A) economic growth of a sustained nature.
B) a short-run increase in aggregate production in aneconomy.
C) a time of increasing employment.
D) the end of the business cycle.

19. Which of the following would NOT be classified as amacroeconomic question?
A) How many people are employed in the economy as a whole?
B) What determines the overall level of prices in the economy as awhole?
C) What determines the overall trade in goods, services, andfinancial assets between the United States and the rest of theworld?
D) What determines the cost to a university or college of offeringa new course?

20. Which of the following statements regarding price level orinflation is correct?
A) Supply and demand can not explain why a particular good orservice becomes more expensive relative to other goods andservices.
B) Inflation affects only the more advanced countries whereas lessadvanced countries face deflation.
C) Prices of most goods and services remained stable during thegreat depression.
D) In general, when the economy is in recession and jobs are hardto find, inflation tends to fall.

21. If wages grew at a 5% rate last year and average prices grew ata 3% rate, then the average worker is:
A) better off.
B) worse off.
C) no better or worse off.
D) unaffected.

22. In an open economy:
A) the exchange rate is determined by the government.
B) specialization in activities with a comparative advantage is notpossible.
C) trade is only beneficial to the relatively larger economy.
D) there is trade in goods, services, or assets with othercountries.

23. Changes in government spending and taxes in an effort to changeoverall spending in an economy is:
A) fiscal policy.
B) monetary policy.
C) investment.
D) the stock market.

24. If an economy is open, this means that:
A) anyone can immigrate to the country.
B) trading with other countries makes up a portion of itseconomy.
C) it does not trade with other countries.
D) it will experience a drop in its real GDP.

25. Inflation is a situation where:
A) the average price level falls.
B) the average price level increases.
C) the average price level becomes negative.
D) the real price level falls.

26. The topics studied in macroeconomics include:
A) the price of a motorcycle.
B) the wages of engineers.
C) the average price level in the economy.
D) how much ice cream consumers buy.

27. A period of rising real GDP is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

28. The modern tools of macroeconomic policy are:
A) tax policy and antitrust policy.
B) fiscal policy and monetary policy.
C) monetary policy and exchange rate policy.
D) capital policy and labor policy.

29. A ârubber neckingâ traffic jam is an example of:
A) microeconomics in action.
B) individual behavior that has a large aggregate impact.
C) the paradox of thrift.
D) an outcome smaller than the sum of its parts.

30. The most painful consequence of a recession is:
A) rising unemployment.
B) increasing inflation.
C) increasing aggregate output.
D) higher interest rates.

31. Per capita economic growth is:
A) economic growth per unit of capital.
B) economic growth per person.
C) economic expansion over the business cycle.
D) sustained increase in aggregate output.

32. Keynesian economics stressed:
A) total spending.
B) the self-regulating power of free markets.
C) the long run.
D) that the Depression should run its course to bring down the highcost of living.

33. When an economy's overall production grows faster than itspopulation, this is referred to as:
A) long-run growth per capita.
B) an increase in nominal GDP.
C) deflation.
D) the paradox of thrift.

34. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the overall level of spendingin the economy through:
A) changes in the inflation rate.
B) changes in the quantity of money or the interest rate.
C) changes in tax policy or government spending.
D) discretionary regulation of profits and wages.

35. With regard to the aggregate price level, economists generallybelieve:
A) price stability is a desirable goal.
B) inflation is worse than deflation.
C) deflation is worse than inflation.
D) inflation actually benefits most retired people.

36. Recessions are periods when:
A) output rises.
B) the aggregate price level rises.
C) the unemployment rate is falling.
D) output and employment are falling.

37. Monetary policy attempts to affect the overall level ofspending in the economy by changes in:
A) taxes.
B) taxes and spending.
C) taxes and interest rates.
D) interest rates and the quantity of money.

38. The basic difference between an economic recession and economicdepression is that:
A) the latter is a shorter economic downturn than the former.
B) during recessions output falls faster than duringdepressions.
C) during depressions employment falls faster than duringrecessions.
D) the former is a longer economic downturn than the latter.

39. The central mission of modern macroeconomics is to prevent_____ from happening again.
A) recessions
B) inflation
C) deflation
D) anything like the Great Depression

40. Fiscal policy refers to:
A) the control of interest rates.
B) the control of government spending and taxations.
C) the control of the quantity of money.
D) the control of interest rates and of government spending.

byzantiumant655

5. Plots of the yield curve can be useful for: a. Predicting the future course of inflation b. Predicting the future trends in international trade c. Predicting the future course of interest rates d. Prediction the future policy actions of the Federal Reserve System

6. An upward sloping yield curve means that, a. Short-term interest rates are expected to fall, so that long-term interest rates will be higher than short-term interest b. Short-term interest rates are expected to rise, so that short-term interest rates will be higher than long-term interest c. Short-term interest rates are expected to rise, so that long-term interest rates will be higher than short-term interest d. Short-term interest rates are expected to fall, so that short-term interest rates will be lower than long-term interest

7. Which of the following is NOT a stylized fact about the yield curve. a. The yield curve is generally upward sloping b. The yield curve is generally downward sloping c. The yield curve tends to shift over time d. The yield curve tends tend to predict future economic activity

8. If the Expectations Hypothesis holds true about long-term and short-term bonds being substitutes, then if the U.S. government decides to issue a large stock of long-term bonds, we could expect, a. The yield curve to become steeper b. The yield curve to become flatter c. The yield curve to shift down d. The yield curve to shift up

9. Suppose that businesses believe that the economy is about to expand, then we could expect, a. The yield curve to become steeper b. The yield curve to become flatter c. The yield curve to shift down d. The yield curve to shift up

10. Empirical evidence in US shows that when the spread between long term bonds and short-term bonds is negative (that is: the yield curve slopes downward or is inverted) then __________ is highly possible. a. Higher inflation b. Lower inflation c. A recession d. An economic expansion

11. According to the pure expectations theory of term structure, a flat yield curve is interpreted to mean that, a. Interest rates are expected to rise b. Interest rates are expected to fall c. Interest rates are expected to remain constant d. Interest rates are expected to rise and then to fall e. None of the above

12. Yield curves can be classified as: a. Upward sloping b. Downward sloping c. Flat d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

13. Yield curves can be: a. Steeply upward sloping b. Moderately upward sloping c. Downward sloping d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

14. Typically, yield curves are: a. Gently upward sloping b. Gently downward sloping c. Flat d. Bowl shaped e. Mound shaped

15. When yield curves are steeply upward sloping, a. Long-term interest rates are above short-term interest rates b. Short-term interest rates are above long-term interest rates c. Short-term interest rates are about the same as long-term interest rates d. Medium-term interest rates are above both short-term and long-term interest rates e. Medium-term interest rates are below both short-term and long-term interest rates

16. An inverted yield curve: a. Slopes up b. Is flat c. Slopes down d. Has a U shape e. Has an inverted U shape

17. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. The interest rate on long-term bonds will equal an average of short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bonds b. Buyers of bonds do not prefer bonds of one maturity over another c. Interest rates on bonds of different maturities move together over time d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

18. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. The interest rate on long-term bonds will equal an average of short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bonds b. Interest rates on bonds of different maturities move together over time c. Buyers of bonds prefer short-term to long-term bonds d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

19. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. When the yield curve is steeply upward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to rise in the future b. When the yield curve is downward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to decline in the future c. Buyers of bonds do not prefer bonds of one maturity over another d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

20. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. When the yield curve is steeply upward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to rise in the future b. When the yield curve is downward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to decline in the future c. Investors have strong preferences for short-term relative to long-term bonds, explaining why yield curves typically slope upward d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

21. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. When the yield curve is steeply upward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to rise in the future b. When the yield curve is downward sloping, short-term interest rates are expected to decline in the future c. Yield curves should be as equally likely to slope downward as slope upward d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

22. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. The interest rate on long-term bonds will equal an average of short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bonds b. Buyers of bonds do not prefer bonds of one maturity over another c. Yield curves should be as equally likely to slope downward as slope upward d. All of the above e. Only (a) and (b)

23. According to the expectations theory of the term structure, a. The interest rate on long-term bonds will equal an average of short-term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-term bonds b. Buyers of bonds do prefer short-term to long-term bonds c. Interest rates on bonds of different maturities do not move together over time d. All of the above

24. Assume that over the next two years, the expected path of 1-year interest rates is 4 percent and 1 percent. The expectations theory of the term structure predicts that the current interest rate on 2-year bond is: a. 1% b. 1.5% c. 2% d. 2.5% e. 4%

25. Assume that over the next two years, the expected path of 1-year interest rates is 1 percent and 4 percent. The expectations theory of the term structure predicts that the current interest rate on 2-year bond is: a. 1% b. 1.5% c. 2% d. 2.5% e. 4%

26. Assume that the current 1-year interest rate is 3 percent and the current 2-year interest rate is 2 percent. The expectations theory of the term structure predicts that the interest rate expected on 1-year bonds next year is: a. 1% b. 1.5% c. 2% d. 2.5% e. 4%

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ECON 200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Federal Open Market Committee, Fiscal Policy, Open Market Operation

ECON 200 Full Course Notes

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