ATM S 111 Lecture 15: Climate Models

• School: UW
• Department: Atmospheric Sciences
• Course: ATM S 111
• Professor: Casey Cathlee Hilgenbrink

Document Summary

First weather predictions on computers: 1946: test case by von neumann and others, may 1995: joint numerical weather prediction unit, maryland. First operational computer forecasts in us: global coverage since 1973, computers surpassed human forecasts: 1980s, numerical weather predictions (nwp) Improvements in weather prediction over the last 60 years are among the most impressive accomplishments of society: weather forecasting vs. Texas?: weather forecasts depend very sensitively on the initial observations, we cant observe every butterfly, so weather forecasts cant predict the exact path/strength of storms after 2 weeks. In contrast, climate models are all about modelling seasons : climate forecasts, this limit to weather prediction doesn"t affect climate forecasts. It all averages out after a few months of storms: climate forecasts: Summer is hotter than winter: after a strong volcano blows up, the earth will cool, the earth will be hotter with more greenhouse gases. Surface fluxes of energy: have to parameterize small-scale processes, clouds, moist convection.