POL 51 Lecture 8: Lecture 8
12 Feb 2017
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
Proportion of times the outcome would occur if we observed the random process an infinite # of times. A bunch of samples + a bunch of observations (cid:3450) we"ll be able to learn stuff about the world. As more observations are collected, the proportion of occurrences w/a particular outcome converges to the true probability of that outcome. Problem: most of our datasets are samples, so we hardly know the true population; we need probability bc it. Let"s us know how much we can generalize from the sample to the population. Tells us whether the pattern we see are due to simple chance or the variable(s) we say that cause the pattern. Pr (outcome) = outcome / n possible outcomes. Knowing the outcome of 1 provides no useful info about the outcome of the other. Ex. flipping a coin and rolling a die are 2 independent processes. Knowing the coin was heads doesn"t help determine the outcome of a die roll.
