POL 51 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Statistical Significance, Confounding
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Change in gdp over presidency = (q15-q1)/q1. Have a sense of a range of values for the key variables in analysis. Might ask if a particular value of a variable is plausible or not. Incumbent receiving 65% of the two-party vote is unlikely (because it"s never happened/been very close to happening), even when the economy is good. Same for challenger -- if incumbent didn"t get 65%, challenger definitely couldn"t get it. Know the findings from the analysis of hw6 and their implications for the causal hypotheses. Know the basics: rq, causal hypotheses, theory, findings. The tests are done to determine if chance produced the outcome, or if it was systematic. Why do tables 2 and 3 differentiate types of civil wars as either identity or politico-economic wars. Focused on measuring the variables we discussed on. Main findings of table 1 and table 2. Additional tables -- not responsible for this on the midterm.
