COMPSCI 171 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: A120 Road, Utility, Expected Utility Hypothesis
10 Dec 2018
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Probability gives: a natural way to describe our assumptions, rules for how to combine information. = leave for airport t minutes before flight. P(a25 gets me there on time | ) = 0. 04. P(a90 gets me there on time | ) = 0. 70. P(a120 gets me there on time | ) = 0. 95. P(a1440 gets me there on time | ) = 0. 9999. The action you choose depends on your preferences for missing the flight vs. time spent waiting, etc. Used to represent and infer preferences. A rational agent acts to maximize expected utility. E(utility(a25)) = 0. 04*,000 + 0. 96*( ,000) = ,560. E(utility(a90)) = 0. 7*,000 + 0. 3*( ,000) = ,300. Didn"t account for disutility of staying overnight. P(a or b) = p(a)+p(b)-p(a and b) Represents the event that a would happen in repeated trials. Represents an agent"s degree of belief that event a is true. Probability of a being true given b is true.
