SOCECOL 13 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Confidence Interval, Central Limit Theorem, Standard Deviation
22 Nov 2016
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Document Summary
Chapter 14 understanding probability and long-term expectations relative-frequency interpretation of probability: relative frequency interpretation: applies to situations that can be repeated over and over again. Observing sex of births is traffic signal red on daily commute testing individuals in a population for genetic markers. Chapter 17 when intuition differs from relative frequency. Central limit theorem: states that if n is sufficiently large, the sample means of random samples from a population with mean. Confidence interval: an interval of values computed from sample data that is almost sure to cover the true population number. Most common level of confidence = 95: willing to take a 5% risk that the interval misses the true value. Never entirely certain whether any given confidence interval captures the true value in long run, 95% of all confidence and intervals tagged with 95% of confidence will be correct and 5% of them will be wrong. Empirical rule restates: for bell shaped data.
