SOC SCI H1G Lecture Notes - Lecture 17: Belief Revision, Dutch Book, Null Hypothesis
25 Dec 2018
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Conditionalization and belief revision: principle of strict conditionalization: pn(h) = po(h|e, a belief revision model of knowledge, synchronic - at a single time, diachronic - over time. If my degrees of beliefs at the time are not diachronically coherent, then there is a kind of dutch book that can be made against: coherent - satisfying the axioms of probability, bayes, etc. Is this right: statistical evidence does not require you to believe in the hypothesis being tested, how can you have something that has very low p values but is not true, other outside factors, bandwagon. If kyle was to give him three dollars and then they played the game, the outcome would be sh. 50: still irrational for jeff to play and rational for kyle to play. Rationality and tracking reasons: problem 3: imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine bth decisions, then indicate the options you prefer.
