MEM 2221 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Moving Average, Technological Forecasting And Social Change, Delphi Method
11 Dec 2019
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Forecasting - what happens if the firm tries to implement given strategies in a possible environment. All executives give an estimate of future volume and president considers an average of these estimations. Inexpensive, quick and acceptable if the future conforms to the assumptions the executives used. Use of panel of experts in the technical field. Ask each independently, average the estimates, report back to panel members, panel members can modify or defend their claim, final value is adopted after a few iterations. Eliminates the effects of interaction among experts. Sales force members estimate sales in their territory, regional sales managers adjust these estimates based on optimism/pessimism, general sales manager massages the figures to account for pew products/factors. Best when most of products are bought by few customers. For consumer goods this testing is expensive and customers often do not know what they will buy in the future. Combine a variety of methods to get best sales forecast.
