POLS 1602 Lecture 16: POLS 1602 Lecture 16 10-29-18
1 Dec 2018
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6 in 7 (84. 8%) chance dems will take control. 1 in 7 (15. 2%) chance reps keep control. Primaries and caucuses are steeped in tradition (not logic) Compare jimmy carter in 1976 to marco rubio in 2016. In 1976: 10 states held primaries by 3/1; 31 states after may. In 2016, 21 states held primaries by 3/1. Bandwagon effect who cares about the later primaries. 23 more by tuesday march 10 (cali, tx, michigan, va, etc. ) In 2016, dems needed 2361 to control convention, reps needed 1144. Challenge #1: the electoral strategy needed to win the nomination differs from the strategy needed to win the general election. Challenge #2: make the conventions look good on television; assuage the losers.
