CSE 150 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Commonsense Reasoning, Bayes Estimator, Product Rule
11 Apr 2018
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Ex: reasoning about: multiple explanations of a single event, multiple events w/ a common explanation, chain of linked events. P(b, e, a) = p(b) p(e|b) p(a|b, e) Domain knowledge - what we assume to be true! Earthquakes p(e = 1 | b = 0) = 0. 002. P(e = 1 | b = 1) = 0. 002. P(b = 0) = 1 - p(b = 1) = 0. 999. P(e = 1 | b) - knowing whether or not a burglary occured doesn"t affect whether an earthquake occured! P(e = 1 | b) = p(e = 1) = 0. 002. 1 - 0. 95: reasoning about multiple explanations. = ( p(a = 1 | b = 1) p(b = 1) ) / p(a = 1) = (b,e) p(a = 1, b = b, e = e) = (b,e) p(b = b) p(e = e | b = b) p(a = 1 | b = b, e = e)
