POLI 142K Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Mansfield, Military Technology, Matchlock

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8 Sep 2015
Poli Sci 142K:
Politics and Warfare
Spring 2015
The Bargaining Hypotheses
Week 7, Wednesday, May 13
I. Assumptions, model and hypotheses:
A. Assumption 1: Expectations: all governments rest on a mix of tacit, customary and formal
(constitutional) expectations concerning the level of government output (balance of costs and
benefits) for rulers and ruled.
B. Assumption 2: Bargaining: the level of costs and benefits emerges from a bargaining process
between rulers and ruled
1. Legislatures
2. Monarchies
3. Authoritarian states
II. Hypotheses:
A. The timing of an expansion in the political bargain correlates strongly with increases in the
costs of warfare
1. Domestic demand and rulers' strategies
B. The strategy of rulers facing the problem of rising costs and potential resistance is to bind the
interests of the ruled to the survival of their states
1. Asset binding: the more you have, the more you have to lose (citizenship values)
III. The Model:
A. The four transitions and the four strategic bargains: 1500-2000s:
1. Transition: a stable style of war-fighting and dynamic change
2. Tank warfare (1939-2000s)
B. Military technology
1. Physical technology (weapons and logistics)
2. Institutional design
a. Merchant navies vs. dedicated navies
3. Combatants
a. Long-service professionals
b. Conscripts
The Four Strategic Bargains (strategic choice)
A. The four bargains:
1. The fiscal bargain, 1500-1660
2. The fiscal bargain: deepened 1660-1789
3. The conscription bargain, 1789-1945
4. The security bargain, 1945-2000s
B. Logic: rulers must mobilize domestic resources and manage domestic resistance by binding
subjects/citizens' interests to state survival (asset binding)
I. The Fiscal Bargain, 1500-1660
A. Rulers gain permanent war taxation in exchange for
1. Enhanced security (internal and external)
2. Enhanced legal rights and privileges
a. Efficient contracts and property rights
b. Titles of nobility
c. Trade and commercial privileges
d. Limited capital investment (harbors, roads, canals, markets)
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