FINA 3000 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Sole Proprietorship, Opportunity Cost

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whitemosquito239

16 Dec 2016

School

University of Georgia

Department

Finance

Course

FINA 3000

Professor

pope

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Document Summary

Maximization of wealth is the creation of as much wealth as possible with the available resources. No: non-profits are maxing a social good (that is their wealth, for profit firms have a charitable side. Time value of money is the opportunity cost of tying up funds in projects, stocks, or other assets. Idea: a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. What you give up for something else; you can earn interest on a dollar today that you couldn"t get tomorrow. Investors want to be compensated for time and risk. The expected return versus risk trade off is the concept that greater risk should be rewarded with a higher return. The chance that an outcome is different than expected. Greater risk = greater reward = greater return (% you take) Low risk = bonds, bank cd"s (you get money bank because insured by federal gov), large company stocks.

Related Questions

You manage the finances of a company looking for new investments to grow its portfolio. A small business owner approaches you with and opportunity: invest in his company and you have a 50% chance of seeing a return of $10,000 three years from now. Of course there is also a 50% chance that the small business fails and you see no return.

a. Assuming the interest rate is 4% and your company is risk-neutral (i.e. all it cares about is the expected value of the investment), what is the maximum of amount of your companyâs money you are willing to give up today for the investment? Now your company is thinking about how best it can raise several million dollars to expand its capacity. No single bank is willing to loan your company that much money all at once. Your boss asks for your advice.

b. What other options does a company have to raise a large sum of money in a short period of time?

c. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each type of financing?

d. Which type of financing would you suggest for your company? Why?

Finance homework check! Risk loving, calculations, etc. I just need my answers checked!

Suppose Joe has the choice of two investments. He can invest in a bond, which in 10 years (not accounting for inflation), will have a 50% probability of a 50% return and a 50% probability of a 40% return. On the other hand, he could invest in a mutual fund that in 10 years would have a 50% chance of returning 100% and a 50% chance of returning -20%. If he chose the latter investment, would he be considered Risk Neutral, Risk Averse, or Risk Loving?

Joe would be considered as risk loving.

The later investment is high risk high return investment compared to the one before.

Now, Dr. Pennyworth has a chance to purchase one of two professional cricket clubs, the Miami Manatees or the Jacksonville Gemini. At the beginning of last year, the Manatees were purchased for $100 million, provided $10 million in profits, and are currently on sale for $110 million. On the other hand, the Gemini started the year purchased at $80 million, provided $30 million in profits, and are currently on sale for $140 million. Calculate the rate of return for the owners of each team last year. Which team would you suggest that Dr. Pennyworth purchase today?

Miami Manatees

Investment =$100 million

Return = $10 million

Rate of return = 10/100 = 10%

Selling price = $110 million

Jacksonville Gemini

Investment = $80 million

Return = $30 million

Rate of Return = 30/80 = 37.5%

Selling Price = $140 million

Dr. Pennyworth should purchase Jacksonville Gemini cricket club.

For the above problem, you project that the most optimistic profits for the Manatees this year is $35 million, while the most pessimistic projection is $5 million. Your projections for the Gemini are $32 million and $7 million, respectively. Based only on the range, which do you think is the riskier investment? Which one would you choose?

Game	Most optimistic	Most pessimistic
Manatees	$35million	$5million
Gemini	$32 million	$7million

Based only on the range, Manatees is a riskier investment i.e. $30 million compared to $25million difference between the most optimistic and most pessimistic projection.

I would choose Manatees.

4. Imagine there are two free agent outfielders available. They both cost the same price, but you only have the money to sign one. Assume home runs alone are a proxy for performance. Suppose Player 1 has a 20% chance of hitting 20 home runs and a 20% chance of hitting 25 home runs, a 25% chance of hitting 30 home runs, a 20% chance of hitting 35 home runs, and a 15% chance of hitting 40 home runs. Player 2 has a 10% chance of hitting 10 home runs and a 10% chance of hitting 15 home runs, a 10% chance of hitting 25 home runs, a 30% chance of hitting 30 home runs, a 30% chance of hitting 35 home runs, and a 10% chance of hitting 50 home runs.

Which player has the highest expected return?

Player one expected return

0.2 *20 + 0.2*25 + 0.25*30 + 0.2*35 + 0.15*40 = 25.9 homes

Player two expected return

0.1*10+0.1*15+0.1*25+0.3*30+0.3*35+0.1*50= 24.5 homes

Which player would represent the riskier investment?

Player one
0.2	20	4	-25.5	650.25	130.05
0.2	25	5	-24.5	600.25	120.05
0.25	30	7.5	-22	484	121
0.2	35	7	-22.5	506.25	101.25

0.15	40	6	-23.5	552.25	82.8375
Expected return		29.5		VARIANCE	555.1875
				STD DEV	23.56

Player Two
0.1	10	1	-23.5	552.25	55.225
0.1	15	1.5	-23	529	52.9
0.1	25	2.5	-22	484	48.4
0.3	30	9	-15.5	240.25	72.075
0.3	35	10.5	-14	196	58.8
0.1	50	5	5	25	2.5
Expected return		24.5		VARIANCE	287.4
				STD DEV	16.95

Player 1 is a riskier investment i.e. Player 1 has higher variance and standard deviation

Which player would you choose?

I would choose player two

What does this say about your risk preferences?

I am risk loving

If there is a high chance of a negative return, why would a general manager invest in a very risky player? How might this conflict with the goals of the team as a whole?

A general manager would invest in a very risky player with a high chance of a negative return since probably the investment would generate huge profits if the estimation of the manager turns out to be correct is high.

The goals of the team as a whole are to maximize returns and minimize risk. Investing in a risky player raises the risk profile of the team as a whole.

Assume Mike Trout has the following distribution of outcomes for 2012. If he gets hurt, he will need some time to recover even while in the lineup, so he cannot produce at his highest level even if he comes back from an injury. If he does not get hurt, then he is certain to either Produce A, B or C, with A > B > C.

Outcome	Probability	Return/Production
Gets Hurt, Misses Whole Season	10%	0 wins
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/2 season, Produces B	20%	1.5 wins
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/2 season, Produces C	10%	0.75 wins
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/4 season, Produces B	10%	3 wins
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/4 season, Produces C	10%	1.5 wins
No Injury, Produces A	20%	10 wins
No Injury, Produces B	10%	6 wins
No Injury, Produces C	10%	3 wins

Using the above information, calculate Mike Trout's expected production for next year. What is his range of possible performances?

Outcome	Probability	Return/Production	Expected Return	Ri - ER	Ri - ER)SQUARED
Gets Hurt, Misses Whole Season	10%	0	0	-3.725	13.87563
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/2 season, Produces B	20%	1.5	0.3	-3.425	11.73063
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/2 season, Produces C	10%	0.75	0.075	-3.65	13.3225
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/4 season, Produces B	10%	3	0.3	-3.425	11.73063
Gets Hurt, Misses 1/4 season, Produces C	10%	1.5	0.15	-3.575	12.78063
No Injury, Produces A	20%	10	2	-1.725	2.975625
No Injury, Produces B	10%	6	0.6	-3.125	9.765625
No Injury, Produces C	10%	3	0.3	3.425	11.73063
Total expected Return			3.725
Variance					87.91188
Standard deviation					9.37

What about his standard deviation?

= 9.37

Using the standard deviation, calculate the interval within which Trout's performance should fall 95% of the time. Does anything seem strange about this calculation?

Standard error = 9.37/â (8) = 9.37/2.83 = 3.31

Margin of error = 3.31 x 2 = 6.61

95% confidence interval: 3.725 + 6.61 = -2.885 to 10.335

Something seems strange with this calculation. Margin of error is larger than the expected return

Suppose you could make an investment. With Investment 1, there is a 20% chance of making $10, a 15% chance of making $20, a 20% chance of making $25, a 20% chance of making $30, a 20% chance of making $40, and a 5% chance of making $100. For Investment 2, there is a 25% chance of making $1,000, a 50% chance of making $2,000, and a 25% chance of making $7,500. Use the coefficient of variation to evaluate the risk involved in these two investments. How does this result differ from using the range? How does it differ from comparing the two using only the standard deviation? Why is this important?

Investment 1		Expected return	Variance	Square of Variance
0.2	10	2	-27	729
0.15	20	3	-26	676
0.2	25	5	-1	1
0.2	30	6	-23	529
0.2	40	8	-21	441
0.05	100	5	-24	576
Expected Return		29
Variance				2952
STD Dev				54.33
Coefficient of variation = STD DEV/EXPECTED RETURN				1.8734

Investment 2		Expected return	Variance	Square of Variance
0.25	1000	250	-2875	8265625
0.5	2000	1000	-2125	4515625
0.25	7500	1875	-1250	1562500
Expected Return		3125
Variance				14343750
STD Dev				3787
Coefficient of variation = STD DEV/EXPECTED RETURN				1.2118

Range

Investment 2âs returns are more skewed than investment 1 and therefore investment two would be considered riskier. However, using coefficient of variation shows that investment 1 is riskier.

Standard deviation

Investment has a higher standard deviation compared to investment 1 and therefore investment two would be considered riskier. However, using coefficient of variation shows that investment 1 is riskier.

Coefficient of variation measures the variability of the outcomes relative to the expected return. Since the two sets of data are different, coefficient of variation is the best measure of risk.

Based on the following table of yearly revenues, do you think the two teams are compliments or substitutes? Why?

Year	Manatees	Gemini
2005	$10	$10
2006	$5	$15
2006	$15	$20
2008	$25	$35
2009	$12	$12
2010	$12	$15
2011	$20	$25

The teams are compliments. The price movements and range shows that Manatees and Gemini prices neither affect each other directly nor are they driven by the same set of factors as would be in the case of substitutes.

viridianhippopotamus258

The goal of the firm is to ____ because _____. Answer maximize shareholders' wealth; it considers all risks invest funds in real estate; the return is longer maximize shareholders' profit; it is a short term outlook closely matching management goals Mike is paying $8,000 a year on his mortgage at 6% nominal annual interest. He has 15 more years to make payments. He wants to sell his house today. The lowest [minimum] price he can sell the house without losing any money on the house would be about ___. Answer $120,000 $ 50,000 $77,698 $ 186,208 A firm's net income before tax, EBT [NIBT] (on the income statement) is affected by _____. Answer taxes interest dividends Common Stock as listed on the Balance Sheet could include which of the following? Answer A) retained earnings B) additional paid in capital over par value C) preferred capital Both A) and B) If an asset is sold for ___ than its basis, the tax effect would be ____. Answer A) more; capital gain and depreciation recapture B) less; depreciation recapture C) more; capital loss Both A) and B) The main reason for a firm to have assets is to _______. Answer generate revenue match the liabilities and equity both of the above be able to borrow money and pay its debts none of the above The only risk you would NOT have in loaning money to the United States Government (Uncle Sugar) is _____ risk. Answer liquidity maturity default A(n) ____ shows _____. Answer balance sheet; sources and uses of funds income statement; net income as of a specific date cash flow statement; how well the firm is doing relative to its competition You can compare dollars _____ because ______. Answer computed using equations; any math is always correct at any point in time; time is never a factor if they are at nominal value; that is when decisions are made only at the same point in time; dollars can be invested to earn interest There ___ a tax benefit to the company with paying preferred dividends because _______. Answer is; investors can write them off is not; investors declare them as income is; the company can use the payments as an expense is not; the company cannot use the payments as an expense XYZ issued a 6% coupon, $1,000 par, 30 year to maturity bond. It is now 6 years to maturity. What is the price of the bond if the yield to maturity [market interest rate] is 10%? Answer $1,000 $659.46 $825.79 $705.33 The valuation process can be described as ______. Answer calculating the present value of an expected future cash flow using the investor's required rate of return as the discount rate calculating the future value of an expected future cash flow using the investor's required rate of return as the discount rate amortizing the value of the asset over its holding period The ______ is the minimum required rate of return a firm must earn on its investments. Answer net present value opportunity cost of capital or weighted average cost of capital. internal rate of return gross profit margin The value of an asset is the _____ dollar price someone is willing to pay for it. Answer usual maximum minimum Companies use ____ in capital budgeting project analysis because ________. Answer accounting profit; that is the total net income after tax cash flow; that is what the owners would receive from the project and reinvest accounting profit; that is what the owners would receive from the project and reinvest after tax cash flow; that is the result of prudent accounting When borrowing money, you want to know the ____ interest rate because ____. Answer nominal; it is the easiest to find. effective; it is the true cost of borrowing risk free; that is what the government pays Fed funds; that is what you would pay the bank Cash available to pay out to the investors after the firm pays for new investments or additions to working capital is _____. Answer a statement of cash flows operating after tax cash flow free cash flow net income An organization that raises money from investors and provides financing for individuals and businesses is a ___. Answer factor federal government regulatory unit state government taxing authority financial intermediary Negatives/cons of the Net Present Value (NPV) technique include: Answer least conservative reinvestment assumption multiple rates of return for non-conventional cash flows all of the above none of the above A fixed exchange rate means a country _____. Answer can only use gold coins as money is limited in the amount of paper money it can print can print money as the economy demands Your company is considering an investment with the following expected cash flows: Initial Investment = $407,596 Operating Cash Flows = $73,428 per year Terminal Cash Flow = $11,872. The company's WACC is 11% for similar risk projects. The proposed project would have an expected life of 9 years. Your boss asks you to do the analysis. You would tell your boss this proposed project ___ because ____. Answer is acceptable; NPV is about $3,620 is acceptable; NPV is zero should be rejected; NPV is about -$5,660 [negative $5,660]. should be rejected; NPV is zero All ratios are ___ and a reason to analyze ratios is ____. Answer good; to continue to look productive good and bad; because seemingly good ratios can be masking something bad bad; to try to rework the numbers to have them look good basically irrelevant; there really is no need to analyze financial statements When analyzing financial statements, ratio analysis gives ____ and provides insight into ____. Answer very little useful information; practically nothing good practice in logical thinking; what has occurred and the logic behind it financiers something to do during slow periods; how the financier spends his time accountants a reason to provide financial statements; why accountants do what they do while at work Given: Economic State[i]: Good Average Expected Return[i]: 10% 8% Probability[i]: 30% 70% What is the Standard Deviation? Answer 3% 8.4% 0.92% 5.6% Chapter 9: XYZ has a projected project to install a new press. The expected cash revenue is $175,000 per year. Expected yearly expenses are: Operatinf costs of $50,000; Rental of $17,000; Utilities of $20,500; and Depreciation of $10,000. The tax rate is 35%. What is the expected After-Tax Operating Cash Flow for the first year? Answer $65,500 $60,375 $77,500 $97,500 A stock just paid a dividend of $1.60 per year. The dividend is expected to grow at 3% per year indefinately. Equally risky stocks offer expected rates of return of 8%. What should be the stock price? Answer 53.33 $16.00 $32.96 None of the above. A plot of the CAPM is the _____. Answer wrong thing to do Security Market Line a function showing how to calculate TVM All of the above. Derivatives are used to ___. Answer divide one number by another find old ways to do things hedge risk none of the above With the end of the Gold Standard in the 1970's, what new risk did business face in the international market? Answer Comjpetition Exchange rate Worker compensation Property taxes One of the positive aspects [pros] of a Floating Exchange Rate System is ____. Answer money can be printed as needed to support financial/economic growth no/reduced inflation economic growth is reduced as a result of reduced liquidity [lower money supply] business planning is more difficult A(n) ____ contract obligates the seller to execute the contract and the contract is executed. Answer backwards forward future option What policies did countries institute after the Great War that help lead to the Great Depression? Answer A. Mandatory military service B. Trade restrictions C. High tariffs D. Isolationism Only B., C. and D. All of the above

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FINA 3000 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Sole Proprietorship, Opportunity Cost

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