POLSCI 160 Lecture 7: LEC Fri, 9-23 Current Events Friday Syrian Civil War
12 Oct 2016
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Ps160 lec, fri 9-23-16: the ceasefire agreement in the syrian civil war. Background: this agreement has collapsed and the war is back on. We want to think of this as a promise that was broken. Us-russia: promise to syrian government and moderate rebels to target isis/al-nuszra if ceasefire holds. Syrian government to us/russia: stop production of chemical weapons. Russia to other side: control government; us to the other side: control rebels. From all parties to all parties: allow delivery of humanitarian aid. The first promise is not credible because too many parties. History of government chemical attacks undermines credibility. Low credibility in the third promise because number of rebel groups, no central rebel authority, limited us influence. If they do not respect the ceasefire: more war, maybe not so bad. If the government stops fighting: best for the rebels, limited value because assad would not go. Us-russia agreement did not include the key actors.
