POLSCI 160 Lecture 7: Perceptions - Pooling & Separation
23 Jan 2019
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Perceptions hard to b/c combine judgment & prior experience. Perceptions form by analyzing why actor performed action. Pooling : if both types would take same action, cannot use this action to differentiate between & learn about types (irresolute vs. resolute) Separation : if types take different actions, can use observations to learn about each type. Actors learn from events that separate types. Complete separation & pooling = rare usually partial separation. Resolute = willing to carry out threat & fight response: make concessions. Irresolute = bluffing to get concessions response: reject demands & prepare to fight. Credibility : precommitments , audience costs (public declarations), escalation (war prep) Versailles treaty unfavorable to germany hitler rises to power thru nat"lism 1936: Germany annexes sudetenland ( pooling ) german army occupies rest of non-german. Czechoslovakia ( separation ) britain & france realize they are up against expansionist. Germany & prepare to fight for romania & poland germany perceived british &
