PSYCH 240 Lecture 18: Psych 240 Lecture 18 - Reasoning, Judgement, Decision Making
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I studied, therefore i"ll get a good grade. (2) denying the consequent (a) if i study, then i"ll get a good grade. I didn"t get a good grade, therefore i didn"t study. Inductive: evidence is probabilistic, bayes theorem, normative approach - allows people to properly weigh both the current evidence and the base right. Thursday, march 31, 2016: both matter, even if your evidence supports an uncommon event, the probability of that event may still be low. (1) p(h) = overall probability that hypothesis is true, prior probability, Base rate (2) p(h/e) = [p(e/h) p(h)] / [p(e/h) p(h) + p(e/h) p(h)] !2: tendency to estimate the likelihood of an event in terms of how easily instances. Anchoring: tendency to use the initial value as a reference point in making a numerical estimate, judgements will differ based on the context, surveys, distance from ny to san francisco, more or less than 1500 miles? (avg.
