POLI 1200 Lecture 26: 11-15 week 13
22 May 2018
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Turnout rates:
I. Lack of mobilization for latinos
a. Texas could come into play if you mobilize the latino votes
b. Non Hispanic white share of the electorate is going down.. 85% in 1984 to about 74% in
2016.
c. Differing political views
i. For whites, blacks and Hispanics
ii. Lot of latios do’t ote
d. Racial differences in role of government
i. Blacks more likely to think go should do more to help need americans even if it
means going into debt. Whites way less. Hispanics in between
e. Border wall
i. More Hispanics favor wall than blacks. But whites overwhelming more support
than blacks and Hispanics.
f. Anes 2016
i. 7 point scale on defense spending
ii. Overall, pretty similar. From foreighn policy literature: minorities less aggressive
and hawkish. Smaller relationship.
iii. More blacks ad Hispais hae’t thought aout it as uh as hites hae
g. Abortion
i. Some difference. Black tend to be more supportive of abortion. Hispanics little
stronger in never permitting it.
h. Race and ethnicity difference for a whole country may pay less of a role. But at different
state levels, there are big differences. Each state has their own election and electoral
college votes.
i. Iowa has a large growing latino population
ii. In some states with large populations of minorities, these are the states where
there might be electoral impacts. You are seeing this now
i. In some swing states
i. Can swing elections given size of minority and closeness of races. Races need to
be close
ii. Mobilization is a problem
1. Especially latinos. Their vote turnout is considerably lower
iii. But just a threat of participation can be enough maybe?
1. Have to be careful. If you piss them off enough, you might energize
them.
iv. Probability of blacks, latinos, and both groups influencing election
1. How close is the race? What is the breakdown of latinos and blacks?
2. Florida, north Carolina, virginia, Colorado all have high probability that
the two together will.
j. Conflicting groups
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Document Summary
Hispanics in between: border wall, more hispanics favor wall than blacks. But whites overwhelming more support than blacks and hispanics: anes 2016, 7 point scale on defense spending, overall, pretty similar. From foreighn policy literature: minorities less aggressive and hawkish. Smaller relationship: more blacks a(cid:374)d hispa(cid:374)i(cid:272)s ha(cid:448)e(cid:374)"t thought a(cid:271)out it as (cid:373)u(cid:272)h as (cid:449)hites ha(cid:448)e, abortion, some difference. Black tend to be more supportive of abortion. Hispanics little stronger in never permitting it: race and ethnicity difference for a whole country may pay less of a role. But at different state levels, there are big differences. Each state has their own election and electoral college votes: iowa has a large growing latino population, in some states with large populations of minorities, these are the states where there might be electoral impacts. In some swing states: can swing elections given size of minority and closeness of races. Races need to be close: mobilization is a problem, especially latinos.
