FNCE 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Market Clearing, Absolute Advantage, Consumption Smoothing

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Audio 1
Audio recording started: 10:33 AM Monday, April 2, 2018
Slide 4
Trading is just like a new tech
Slide 5
Bookmark added at 02:29 in Audio 1
While us exports is relativley up to the60s they’ve increased since
Increase in Us trade
Came w better communication devices, ways to share info
across countiries
Idea of a better global supply chain
Emerged in the 80s and continued since
§
While us import of G&S were 4% of GDP in the 40s-60s
theyre 15-20% nowadays
§
Slide 6
Decline in trans and comm costs also tariffs and quotas cause
traede to rise so much
Slide 7
Bookmark added at 04:01 in Audio 1
Us showed trade deficit
You can see emergence in the 80s
Easy to blade this deficit w the decline in trade barriers
and icnrease in comm cost
Comes from fact that the US govt has a
problem
Theyre running a govt deficit and
someone has to chip in to pay deficit
}
®
§
Slide 8
Trade deals arent always bad for US
Bookmark added at 05:05 in Audio 1
If u look at current balance w canada and _____ they arent bad at
all
Canada is 2% and is also the main trading partner
Not a problem
Most of the trade deficit in the US comes w trade
w Germany and China
®
§
China has biggest deficit
Slide 11
Countries trade because everyone likes variety
Bookmark added at 06:52 in Audio 1
We like wine and want to try it from a bunch of places
Trading w other nations helps us achieve this goal
Country B
a lot of banana a little fish
§
Country F
A lot of fish a little baananas
§
They can trade
Healthy balanced diet by trading fish for bananas and eating
an equal amt of both
§
Slide 13
Ppl trade because no one likes risk
Trade is always balanced
§
You exchange the over amount of banas producing for fish
§
As weve seen w the US many countries exhbit big trade surplus or
deficit
2
Bookmark added at 09:12 in Audio 1
Optimal thing to do is to trade
People would die in the years they don’t produce
wheat
§
Trade across time
Odd topia deficits in even years (slide 15)
We know ppl like consumption smoothing across
time to achieve this we can trade w other
ocuntries to insure ourselves against bad
harvests
®
§
Bookmark added at 18:03 in Audio 1
If no one trusts the US, the value of the US dollar goes down
This gives an advantage to us producers to sell goods to the
rest of the world,
§
Its cheap to sell goods to rest of world
Increase us exports, decrease imports leads to US trade
surplus
Rebalancign trade across the world to make sure these
things don’t consistently happen (slide 7)
§
Slide 7
Y=C+I+G+NX
If we are running trade deficit we basically have
negative net exports
Rewind to hear her question
®
Y+C+I+G+ - NX
Were consuming more than were
producing
Were now able to enjoy more
ocnsumption, investment, and government
spending than we woudld if we were not
to trade w the rest of the world
®
§
Slide 16
Bookmark added at 20:35 in Audio 1
When a country is running a trade deficit NX <0
§
C+I+G>Y
Were now consuming more than were producing
Enjoying higher living standard than what our income
called for
Same thing asif ur a household and decide to consume
more on credit card
Credit card allows u to increase living standard
and youre able to have a bigger lifestyle than
income calls for
®
Trade deficit is just like credit card
Just buying more from the world than were able
to produce
®
As long as the rest of the world is willing to lend us
Some households never get out of debt
®
As long as rest of world is willing to lend us were
willing to go
®
§
Slide 19
Are trade deficits worrysome?
Not that bad
Persistence of it is starting to be
®
§
Slide 17
Bookmark added at 26:39 in Audio 1
§
Presence of trade deciit or surplus just represents int'l
______
§
Is urnning a deficit always a bad thing?
Smoothing consumption over time
If u have a desire to smooth consumption over
time this is not a bad thing
®
It allows you to smooth consumption over time
®
Its also beneficial to brrow if u can invest into future
production
Easier for us to pay back our debt
®
Countries benefit by being able to run trade
deficits
®
Country can run deficits if it expects rapid growth
in the future or when it has productive
investment to make, knowing that the deficits
must be repaid in the future
®
§
Slide 18
Bookmark added at 28:46 in Audio 1
§
National saving = Investment + current account
§
This means that trade balance
Current act = NFP+NX
=
®
Bookmark added at 29:24 in Audio 1
®
We can modify equation to find out that trade
balance = net capital outflow
When saving is less than investment,
foreigners have to step in to give us
additional amt of money needed to make
saving and investment equal
Emergence of trade deficit arises
when saving is less than investment
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 30:19 in Audio 1
US investment, saving, and trade deficit
Decit is difference btwn US investment and US saving
We want to invest at the black line but we only saved
at red line
Foreigners must come in to help us out
®
Difference btwn saving and investment is = to
current account shutting off NFp current account
= NX
Leads to twin deficits
®
§
Slide 20
Twin deficits say- large budget deficit
§
Private inv has remained constant over time
§
Reason saving has drifted aay from investment comes from
emergence of SU emerging budget deficit
§
Foreigners via trade deficit end up stepping in to proivide
saving needed to cover US budget deficit
§
US trade deficit emerged in 1980s it dint emerge bc other
countries messed w us it emerged bc us govt started to run
huge govt deficis
Someone had to pay for deficits
Since domestic residents were not willing to save more
foreigners had to come and step in to lend to us govt
indirectly through trade deficit
§
In an open econ
§
Bookmark added at 34:03 in Audio 1
Investment = saving - net exports
You can split saving into private saving and govt saving
Now equation becomes investment = private savin +
govt saving + NX
In the US it has been true for a long time that US
investment are roughly equal to private saving
If you have to throw private saving to other side
0=0 govt saving - NX
®
Now we know us govt is not saving but
borrowing
Foreigners have to chip in and help us
close the gap by lending us $ or goods and
services
All starts w Y=C+I+G+NX
NX=S-I
I= Saving -NX
}
US govt is not saving rn its borrwing
Negative saving
This equation has to = 0
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 36:54 in Audio 1
Clear depiction of whats happening
§
US investment has been much higher than US saving and it
emerged at the en do fthe 70s and early 80s
As such to close the gap we have been runnign a trade
deficit
§
Slide 21
Bookmark added at 37:25 in Audio 1
If u split national saving into private and public saving
§
You can clearly see what happened
§
Emergence of US budget deficit comes w emergence of trade
deficit this is what we call a TWIN DEFICIT
Trump wants to impose tariffs on countries like china
to reduce trade deficit
Hes running enormous budget deficits
So far deficit is twice as large as it was during
obama's
®
Are these 2 things are going agisnt eachother
Emergence of bigger budget deficits lead
to bigger trade deificts which is whathes
trying to cover in the first place w tariff
His policies ar einconcsistent
}
Trump is cutting taexes and
increasing govt spending
}
Tax cuts lead ppl to have more
money and can consumer more
goods and services from abroad
}
Ppl have more money to spend
They’ll spend more on foreign
G&S leading to bigger trade
deficit
His policices rn are
inconsistent w one another
This is coming from
expenditure and entity of
national income accounting
}
®
§
If your focus on trade deficit the first way to tackle it is to run
budget surplus so that u don’t have to brrow from rest of
world to cover deficit
Should take care of trade deficit
Domestic spending will also go down bc govt spending
will go down
Using eq ______ hsould go down
®
§
Investment today should help correct budget deficit in the
future
§
Problem: US govt is running a trade deficit
Private saving = private investment
When govt runs a deficit someone has to pay for it and
its not domestic residents
Who is it? Foreigners
®
US sends goods and services in exchange for cash
and w the cash they come back to the us govt
®
As long as private saving = private investment
and Us is running a deficit foreigners have to
come in and help us out
To the extent that theyre doing so were
running a defict
®
§
Slid 22
If u take accumulation of all debt across time we owe the
world about 40% of one yr of GDP
§
Bookmark added at 48:50 in Audio 1
§
In 60s and 70s we were a net creditor tto the rest of the
world
As we started to accumulate budget deficit we started
to accumulate trade defict
Now the rest of the world lends us cash
One person in 1980 etc etc we now owe 40%
If u want to break down debt us govt owes about one
year of GDP
About 20% of the debt is held within the gov
®
80% of govt debt is held by private agents of
which half of it is owned by US residents and
other half is owned by foreign residents
®
China and japan each own about 1/8 of US debt
®
§
(slide 20) Foreigners saving is positive in other countries
For the us net exports is negative so for other cuontries
its positive
M-X is positive
Bookmark added at 53:35 in Audio 1
This means they are producing more than their coutnry
consumes by sending good to US for cash they are
saving
§
Slide 24
Countries trade bc its efficient
§
Bookmark added at 56:23 in Audio 1
§
US and china both produce toys and computers
§
In china one worker can either produce 100 toys or 2
computers
§
Should US trade w china? How an dwhy
Even if US is better at producing toys and ocmputers
There is still an advantage of trading
They will trade where theyre most efficient at
producing something
There is a gain coming from trade
Having americans only producing comptuers and
chinese only producing toys
®
Trade is not about what we call absolute
advantage but comaprative advantage
In this example US is better at producing
both toys and computers but is relatively
better at producign computers
One US worker gies up 10 toys ot produce
one computer while one chines has to give
up 50 toys to produce comptuers so
americans are relatively better at
producing computer s than they are toys
relative to the chiens
®
§
Slide 25
Bookmark added at 58:47 in Audio 1
§
Workers in both countries spend half their income on each
good
§
Wage is "w" and each worker supplies one unit of labor so w
is also their income
§
Price of toys is 1 and computers cost p toys
§
sUS wage w=160 china w=100
§
You can either produce one computer or 50 toys
§
Market clearing price is 50 toys for one computer in china
and 10 toys for one computer in the US
§
Slide 26
Bookmark added at 01:00:14 in Audio 1
§
Numerial example
§
American produce computers can earn for each 25 toys
§
Slide 29
Both are better of f under free trade bc they end up
consuming more of some goods
§
Wage is 400 toys under free trade bc each worker produces
16 ocomputers and udner free trade each one goes for 25
toys
Spend half income on toys other half on computers
since each comp sells for 25 toys he gets 8 computers
§
This shows that although us is better at producing boh toys
and ocmputers both countries end up being better off at
trading bc the US is relatively better at producing computers
than toys compared to china and hcina is better at producing
toys than computers relativ eto the US
§
Trade is not about absolute adv its about ocmparative adv
§
Trade is like a new tech it helped consumers of both
countries increase consumption
§
Slide 30
Bookmark added at 01:07:54 in Audio 1
§
In what sense is trade good for an economy
Variety
Risk
Efficient
§
In what sense is trade bad for an economy
Half of workers are in toy industry other half is in
computer industry
Now u open country to free trade, toy worker either
has to work in comptuers or they lose their job
Free trade is bad for an econ because losses are
concentrated in the sectors that are losing to free trade
Thsea re the sectors for which US is not computetive
anymore in liberal econ
W free trade every consumer gains bc price of G and S
is now lower in U S
Gains ar spread across everybdy by lowering price of
G& S
Losses are concentrated in ndustry for which US
does not have compartive advantage
The toy industry
Same thing happening rn w current admin
Cost of producing steel in the US is les than
rest of world
®
§
Int'l Trade
Monday, April 2, 2018
10:33 AM
Unlock document

This preview shows pages 1-3 of the document.
Unlock all 10 pages and 3 million more documents.

Already have an account? Log in
Audio 1
Audio recording started: 10:33 AM Monday, April 2, 2018
Slide 4
Trading is just like a new tech
Slide 5
Bookmark added at 02:29 in Audio 1
While us exports is relativley up to the60s they’ve increased since
Increase in Us trade
Came w better communication devices, ways to share info
across countiries
Idea of a better global supply chain
Emerged in the 80s and continued since
§
While us import of G&S were 4% of GDP in the 40s-60s
theyre 15-20% nowadays
§
Slide 6
Decline in trans and comm costs also tariffs and quotas cause
traede to rise so much
Slide 7
Bookmark added at 04:01 in Audio 1
Us showed trade deficit
You can see emergence in the 80s
Easy to blade this deficit w the decline in trade barriers
and icnrease in comm cost
But it mainly comes from us government deficit
Comes from fact that the US govt has a
problem
Theyre running a govt deficit and
someone has to chip in to pay deficit
}
®
§
Slide 8
Trade deals arent always bad for US
Bookmark added at 05:05 in Audio 1
If u look at current balance w canada and _____ they arent bad at
all
Canada is 2% and is also the main trading partner
Not a problem
®
§
China has biggest deficit
Slide 11
Countries trade because everyone likes variety
Bookmark added at 06:52 in Audio 1
We like wine and want to try it from a bunch of places
Trading w other nations helps us achieve this goal
Country B
a lot of banana a little fish
§
Country F
A lot of fish a little baananas
§
They can trade
Healthy balanced diet by trading fish for bananas and eating
an equal amt of both
§
Slide 13
Ppl trade because no one likes risk
Trade is always balanced
§
You exchange the over amount of banas producing for fish
§
As weve seen w the US many countries exhbit big trade surplus or
deficit
2
Bookmark added at 09:12 in Audio 1
Optimal thing to do is to trade
People would die in the years they don’t produce
wheat
§
Trade across time
Odd topia deficits in even years (slide 15)
®
§
Bookmark added at 18:03 in Audio 1
If no one trusts the US, the value of the US dollar goes down
This gives an advantage to us producers to sell goods to the
rest of the world,
§
Its cheap to sell goods to rest of world
Increase us exports, decrease imports leads to US trade
surplus
Rebalancign trade across the world to make sure these
things don’t consistently happen (slide 7)
§
Slide 7
Y=C+I+G+NX
If we are running trade deficit we basically have
negative net exports
Rewind to hear her question
®
Y+C+I+G+ - NX
Were consuming more than were
producing
Were now able to enjoy more
ocnsumption, investment, and government
spending than we woudld if we were not
to trade w the rest of the world
®
§
Slide 16
Bookmark added at 20:35 in Audio 1
When a country is running a trade deficit NX <0
§
C+I+G>Y
Were now consuming more than were producing
Enjoying higher living standard than what our income
called for
Same thing asif ur a household and decide to consume
more on credit card
Credit card allows u to increase living standard
and youre able to have a bigger lifestyle than
income calls for
®
Trade deficit is just like credit card
Just buying more from the world than were able
to produce
®
As long as the rest of the world is willing to lend us
Some households never get out of debt
®
As long as rest of world is willing to lend us were
willing to go
®
§
Slide 19
Are trade deficits worrysome?
Not that bad
Persistence of it is starting to be
®
§
Slide 17
Bookmark added at 26:39 in Audio 1
§
Presence of trade deciit or surplus just represents int'l
______
§
Is urnning a deficit always a bad thing?
Smoothing consumption over time
If u have a desire to smooth consumption over
time this is not a bad thing
®
It allows you to smooth consumption over time
®
Its also beneficial to brrow if u can invest into future
production
Easier for us to pay back our debt
®
Countries benefit by being able to run trade
deficits
®
Country can run deficits if it expects rapid growth
in the future or when it has productive
investment to make, knowing that the deficits
must be repaid in the future
®
§
Slide 18
Bookmark added at 28:46 in Audio 1
§
National saving = Investment + current account
§
This means that trade balance
Current act = NFP+NX
=
®
Bookmark added at 29:24 in Audio 1
®
We can modify equation to find out that trade
balance = net capital outflow
When saving is less than investment,
foreigners have to step in to give us
additional amt of money needed to make
saving and investment equal
Emergence of trade deficit arises
when saving is less than investment
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 30:19 in Audio 1
US investment, saving, and trade deficit
Decit is difference btwn US investment and US saving
We want to invest at the black line but we only saved
at red line
Foreigners must come in to help us out
®
Difference btwn saving and investment is = to
current account shutting off NFp current account
= NX
Leads to twin deficits
®
§
Slide 20
Twin deficits say- large budget deficit
§
Private inv has remained constant over time
§
Reason saving has drifted aay from investment comes from
emergence of SU emerging budget deficit
§
Foreigners via trade deficit end up stepping in to proivide
saving needed to cover US budget deficit
§
US trade deficit emerged in 1980s it dint emerge bc other
countries messed w us it emerged bc us govt started to run
huge govt deficis
Someone had to pay for deficits
Since domestic residents were not willing to save more
foreigners had to come and step in to lend to us govt
indirectly through trade deficit
§
In an open econ
§
Bookmark added at 34:03 in Audio 1
Investment = saving - net exports
You can split saving into private saving and govt saving
Now equation becomes investment = private savin +
govt saving + NX
In the US it has been true for a long time that US
investment are roughly equal to private saving
If you have to throw private saving to other side
0=0 govt saving - NX
®
Now we know us govt is not saving but
borrowing
Foreigners have to chip in and help us
close the gap by lending us $ or goods and
services
All starts w Y=C+I+G+NX
NX=S-I
I= Saving -NX
}
US govt is not saving rn its borrwing
Negative saving
This equation has to = 0
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 36:54 in Audio 1
Clear depiction of whats happening
§
US investment has been much higher than US saving and it
emerged at the en do fthe 70s and early 80s
As such to close the gap we have been runnign a trade
deficit
§
Slide 21
Bookmark added at 37:25 in Audio 1
If u split national saving into private and public saving
§
You can clearly see what happened
§
Emergence of US budget deficit comes w emergence of trade
deficit this is what we call a TWIN DEFICIT
Trump wants to impose tariffs on countries like china
to reduce trade deficit
Hes running enormous budget deficits
So far deficit is twice as large as it was during
obama's
®
Are these 2 things are going agisnt eachother
Emergence of bigger budget deficits lead
to bigger trade deificts which is whathes
trying to cover in the first place w tariff
His policies ar einconcsistent
}
Trump is cutting taexes and
increasing govt spending
}
Tax cuts lead ppl to have more
money and can consumer more
goods and services from abroad
}
Ppl have more money to spend
They’ll spend more on foreign
G&S leading to bigger trade
deficit
His policices rn are
inconsistent w one another
This is coming from
expenditure and entity of
national income accounting
}
®
§
If your focus on trade deficit the first way to tackle it is to run
budget surplus so that u don’t have to brrow from rest of
world to cover deficit
Should take care of trade deficit
Domestic spending will also go down bc govt spending
will go down
Using eq ______ hsould go down
®
§
Investment today should help correct budget deficit in the
future
§
Problem: US govt is running a trade deficit
Private saving = private investment
When govt runs a deficit someone has to pay for it and
its not domestic residents
Who is it? Foreigners
®
US sends goods and services in exchange for cash
and w the cash they come back to the us govt
®
As long as private saving = private investment
and Us is running a deficit foreigners have to
come in and help us out
To the extent that theyre doing so were
running a defict
®
§
Slid 22
If u take accumulation of all debt across time we owe the
world about 40% of one yr of GDP
§
Bookmark added at 48:50 in Audio 1
§
In 60s and 70s we were a net creditor tto the rest of the
world
As we started to accumulate budget deficit we started
to accumulate trade defict
Now the rest of the world lends us cash
One person in 1980 etc etc we now owe 40%
If u want to break down debt us govt owes about one
year of GDP
About 20% of the debt is held within the gov
®
80% of govt debt is held by private agents of
which half of it is owned by US residents and
other half is owned by foreign residents
®
China and japan each own about 1/8 of US debt
®
§
(slide 20) Foreigners saving is positive in other countries
For the us net exports is negative so for other cuontries
its positive
M-X is positive
Bookmark added at 53:35 in Audio 1
This means they are producing more than their coutnry
consumes by sending good to US for cash they are
saving
§
Slide 24
Countries trade bc its efficient
§
Bookmark added at 56:23 in Audio 1
§
US and china both produce toys and computers
§
In china one worker can either produce 100 toys or 2
computers
§
Should US trade w china? How an dwhy
Even if US is better at producing toys and ocmputers
There is still an advantage of trading
They will trade where theyre most efficient at
producing something
There is a gain coming from trade
Having americans only producing comptuers and
chinese only producing toys
®
Trade is not about what we call absolute
advantage but comaprative advantage
In this example US is better at producing
both toys and computers but is relatively
better at producign computers
One US worker gies up 10 toys ot produce
one computer while one chines has to give
up 50 toys to produce comptuers so
americans are relatively better at
producing computer s than they are toys
relative to the chiens
®
§
Slide 25
Bookmark added at 58:47 in Audio 1
§
Workers in both countries spend half their income on each
good
§
Wage is "w" and each worker supplies one unit of labor so w
is also their income
§
Price of toys is 1 and computers cost p toys
§
sUS wage w=160 china w=100
§
You can either produce one computer or 50 toys
§
Market clearing price is 50 toys for one computer in china
and 10 toys for one computer in the US
§
Slide 26
Bookmark added at 01:00:14 in Audio 1
§
Numerial example
§
American produce computers can earn for each 25 toys
§
Slide 29
Both are better of f under free trade bc they end up
consuming more of some goods
§
Wage is 400 toys under free trade bc each worker produces
16 ocomputers and udner free trade each one goes for 25
toys
Spend half income on toys other half on computers
since each comp sells for 25 toys he gets 8 computers
§
This shows that although us is better at producing boh toys
and ocmputers both countries end up being better off at
trading bc the US is relatively better at producing computers
than toys compared to china and hcina is better at producing
toys than computers relativ eto the US
§
Trade is not about absolute adv its about ocmparative adv
§
Trade is like a new tech it helped consumers of both
countries increase consumption
§
Slide 30
Bookmark added at 01:07:54 in Audio 1
§
In what sense is trade good for an economy
Variety
Risk
Efficient
§
In what sense is trade bad for an economy
Half of workers are in toy industry other half is in
computer industry
Now u open country to free trade, toy worker either
has to work in comptuers or they lose their job
Free trade is bad for an econ because losses are
concentrated in the sectors that are losing to free trade
Thsea re the sectors for which US is not computetive
anymore in liberal econ
W free trade every consumer gains bc price of G and S
is now lower in U S
Gains ar spread across everybdy by lowering price of
G& S
Losses are concentrated in ndustry for which US
does not have compartive advantage
The toy industry
Same thing happening rn w current admin
Cost of producing steel in the US is les than
rest of world
®
§
Int'l Trade
Monday, April 2, 2018 10:33 AM
Unlock document

This preview shows pages 1-3 of the document.
Unlock all 10 pages and 3 million more documents.

Already have an account? Log in
Audio 1
Audio recording started: 10:33 AM Monday, April 2, 2018
Slide 4
Trading is just like a new tech
Slide 5
Bookmark added at 02:29 in Audio 1
While us exports is relativley up to the60s they’ve increased since
Increase in Us trade
Came w better communication devices, ways to share info
across countiries
Idea of a better global supply chain
Emerged in the 80s and continued since
§
While us import of G&S were 4% of GDP in the 40s-60s
theyre 15-20% nowadays
§
Slide 6
Decline in trans and comm costs also tariffs and quotas cause
traede to rise so much
Slide 7
Bookmark added at 04:01 in Audio 1
Us showed trade deficit
You can see emergence in the 80s
Easy to blade this deficit w the decline in trade barriers
and icnrease in comm cost
But it mainly comes from us government deficit
Comes from fact that the US govt has a
problem
Theyre running a govt deficit and
someone has to chip in to pay deficit
}
®
§
Slide 8
Trade deals arent always bad for US
Bookmark added at 05:05 in Audio 1
If u look at current balance w canada and _____ they arent bad at
all
Canada is 2% and is also the main trading partner
Not a problem
Most of the trade deficit in the US comes w trade
w Germany and China
®
§
China has biggest deficit
Slide 11
Countries trade because everyone likes variety
Bookmark added at 06:52 in Audio 1
We like wine and want to try it from a bunch of places
Trading w other nations helps us achieve this goal
Country B
a lot of banana a little fish
§
Country F
A lot of fish a little baananas
§
They can trade
Healthy balanced diet by trading fish for bananas and eating
an equal amt of both
§
Slide 13
Ppl trade because no one likes risk
Trade is always balanced
§
You exchange the over amount of banas producing for fish
§
As weve seen w the US many countries exhbit big trade surplus or
deficit
2
Bookmark added at 09:12 in Audio 1
Optimal thing to do is to trade
People would die in the years they don’t produce
wheat
§
Trade across time
Odd topia deficits in even years (slide 15)
®
§
Bookmark added at 18:03 in Audio 1
If no one trusts the US, the value of the US dollar goes down
This gives an advantage to us producers to sell goods to the
rest of the world,
§
Its cheap to sell goods to rest of world
Increase us exports, decrease imports leads to US trade
surplus
Rebalancign trade across the world to make sure these
things don’t consistently happen (slide 7)
§
Slide 7
Y=C+I+G+NX
If we are running trade deficit we basically have
negative net exports
®
Were consuming more than were
producing
Were now able to enjoy more
ocnsumption, investment, and government
spending than we woudld if we were not
to trade w the rest of the world
®
§
Slide 16
Bookmark added at 20:35 in Audio 1
When a country is running a trade deficit NX <0
§
C+I+G>Y
Were now consuming more than were producing
Enjoying higher living standard than what our income
called for
Same thing asif ur a household and decide to consume
more on credit card
®
Trade deficit is just like credit card
Just buying more from the world than were able
to produce
®
As long as the rest of the world is willing to lend us
Some households never get out of debt
®
As long as rest of world is willing to lend us were
willing to go
®
§
Slide 19
Are trade deficits worrysome?
Not that bad
Persistence of it is starting to be
®
§
Slide 17
Bookmark added at 26:39 in Audio 1
§
Presence of trade deciit or surplus just represents int'l
______
§
Is urnning a deficit always a bad thing?
Smoothing consumption over time
If u have a desire to smooth consumption over
time this is not a bad thing
®
It allows you to smooth consumption over time
®
Its also beneficial to brrow if u can invest into future
production
Easier for us to pay back our debt
®
Countries benefit by being able to run trade
deficits
®
Country can run deficits if it expects rapid growth
in the future or when it has productive
investment to make, knowing that the deficits
must be repaid in the future
®
§
Slide 18
Bookmark added at 28:46 in Audio 1
§
National saving = Investment + current account
§
This means that trade balance
Current act = NFP+NX
=
®
Bookmark added at 29:24 in Audio 1
®
We can modify equation to find out that trade
balance = net capital outflow
When saving is less than investment,
foreigners have to step in to give us
additional amt of money needed to make
saving and investment equal
Emergence of trade deficit arises
when saving is less than investment
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 30:19 in Audio 1
US investment, saving, and trade deficit
Decit is difference btwn US investment and US saving
We want to invest at the black line but we only saved
at red line
Foreigners must come in to help us out
®
Difference btwn saving and investment is = to
current account shutting off NFp current account
= NX
Leads to twin deficits
®
§
Slide 20
Twin deficits say- large budget deficit
§
Private inv has remained constant over time
§
Reason saving has drifted aay from investment comes from
emergence of SU emerging budget deficit
§
Foreigners via trade deficit end up stepping in to proivide
saving needed to cover US budget deficit
§
US trade deficit emerged in 1980s it dint emerge bc other
countries messed w us it emerged bc us govt started to run
huge govt deficis
Someone had to pay for deficits
Since domestic residents were not willing to save more
foreigners had to come and step in to lend to us govt
indirectly through trade deficit
§
In an open econ
§
Bookmark added at 34:03 in Audio 1
Investment = saving - net exports
You can split saving into private saving and govt saving
Now equation becomes investment = private savin +
govt saving + NX
In the US it has been true for a long time that US
investment are roughly equal to private saving
If you have to throw private saving to other side
0=0 govt saving - NX
®
Now we know us govt is not saving but
borrowing
Foreigners have to chip in and help us
close the gap by lending us $ or goods and
services
All starts w Y=C+I+G+NX
NX=S-I
I= Saving -NX
}
US govt is not saving rn its borrwing
Negative saving
This equation has to = 0
}
®
§
Slide 19
Bookmark added at 36:54 in Audio 1
Clear depiction of whats happening
§
US investment has been much higher than US saving and it
emerged at the en do fthe 70s and early 80s
As such to close the gap we have been runnign a trade
deficit
§
Slide 21
Bookmark added at 37:25 in Audio 1
If u split national saving into private and public saving
§
You can clearly see what happened
§
Emergence of US budget deficit comes w emergence of trade
deficit this is what we call a TWIN DEFICIT
Trump wants to impose tariffs on countries like china
to reduce trade deficit
Hes running enormous budget deficits
So far deficit is twice as large as it was during
obama's
®
Are these 2 things are going agisnt eachother
Emergence of bigger budget deficits lead
to bigger trade deificts which is whathes
trying to cover in the first place w tariff
His policies ar einconcsistent
}
Trump is cutting taexes and
increasing govt spending
}
Tax cuts lead ppl to have more
money and can consumer more
goods and services from abroad
}
Ppl have more money to spend
They’ll spend more on foreign
G&S leading to bigger trade
deficit
His policices rn are
inconsistent w one another
This is coming from
expenditure and entity of
national income accounting
}
®
§
If your focus on trade deficit the first way to tackle it is to run
budget surplus so that u don’t have to brrow from rest of
world to cover deficit
Should take care of trade deficit
Domestic spending will also go down bc govt spending
will go down
Using eq ______ hsould go down
®
§
Investment today should help correct budget deficit in the
future
§
Problem: US govt is running a trade deficit
Private saving = private investment
When govt runs a deficit someone has to pay for it and
its not domestic residents
Who is it? Foreigners
®
US sends goods and services in exchange for cash
and w the cash they come back to the us govt
®
As long as private saving = private investment
and Us is running a deficit foreigners have to
come in and help us out
To the extent that theyre doing so were
running a defict
®
§
Slid 22
If u take accumulation of all debt across time we owe the
world about 40% of one yr of GDP
§
Bookmark added at 48:50 in Audio 1
§
In 60s and 70s we were a net creditor tto the rest of the
world
As we started to accumulate budget deficit we started
to accumulate trade defict
Now the rest of the world lends us cash
One person in 1980 etc etc we now owe 40%
If u want to break down debt us govt owes about one
year of GDP
About 20% of the debt is held within the gov
®
80% of govt debt is held by private agents of
which half of it is owned by US residents and
other half is owned by foreign residents
®
China and japan each own about 1/8 of US debt
®
§
(slide 20) Foreigners saving is positive in other countries
For the us net exports is negative so for other cuontries
its positive
M-X is positive
Bookmark added at 53:35 in Audio 1
This means they are producing more than their coutnry
consumes by sending good to US for cash they are
saving
§
Slide 24
Countries trade bc its efficient
§
Bookmark added at 56:23 in Audio 1
§
US and china both produce toys and computers
§
In china one worker can either produce 100 toys or 2
computers
§
Should US trade w china? How an dwhy
Even if US is better at producing toys and ocmputers
There is still an advantage of trading
They will trade where theyre most efficient at
producing something
There is a gain coming from trade
Having americans only producing comptuers and
chinese only producing toys
®
Trade is not about what we call absolute
advantage but comaprative advantage
In this example US is better at producing
both toys and computers but is relatively
better at producign computers
One US worker gies up 10 toys ot produce
one computer while one chines has to give
up 50 toys to produce comptuers so
americans are relatively better at
producing computer s than they are toys
relative to the chiens
®
§
Slide 25
Bookmark added at 58:47 in Audio 1
§
Workers in both countries spend half their income on each
good
§
Wage is "w" and each worker supplies one unit of labor so w
is also their income
§
Price of toys is 1 and computers cost p toys
§
sUS wage w=160 china w=100
§
You can either produce one computer or 50 toys
§
Market clearing price is 50 toys for one computer in china
and 10 toys for one computer in the US
§
Slide 26
Bookmark added at 01:00:14 in Audio 1
§
Numerial example
§
American produce computers can earn for each 25 toys
§
Slide 29
Both are better of f under free trade bc they end up
consuming more of some goods
§
Wage is 400 toys under free trade bc each worker produces
16 ocomputers and udner free trade each one goes for 25
toys
Spend half income on toys other half on computers
since each comp sells for 25 toys he gets 8 computers
§
This shows that although us is better at producing boh toys
and ocmputers both countries end up being better off at
trading bc the US is relatively better at producing computers
than toys compared to china and hcina is better at producing
toys than computers relativ eto the US
§
Trade is not about absolute adv its about ocmparative adv
§
Trade is like a new tech it helped consumers of both
countries increase consumption
§
Slide 30
Bookmark added at 01:07:54 in Audio 1
§
In what sense is trade good for an economy
Variety
Risk
Efficient
§
In what sense is trade bad for an economy
Half of workers are in toy industry other half is in
computer industry
Now u open country to free trade, toy worker either
has to work in comptuers or they lose their job
Free trade is bad for an econ because losses are
concentrated in the sectors that are losing to free trade
Thsea re the sectors for which US is not computetive
anymore in liberal econ
W free trade every consumer gains bc price of G and S
is now lower in U S
Gains ar spread across everybdy by lowering price of
G& S
Losses are concentrated in ndustry for which US
does not have compartive advantage
The toy industry
Same thing happening rn w current admin
Cost of producing steel in the US is les than
rest of world
®
§
Int'l Trade
Monday, April 2, 2018 10:33 AM
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Document Summary

Audio recording started: 10:33 am monday, april 2, 2018. While us exports is relativley up to the60s they"ve increased since. Came w better communication devices, ways to share info across countiries. While us import of g&s were 4% of gdp in the 40s-60s theyre 15-20% nowadays. Decline in trans and comm costs also tariffs and quotas cause traede to rise so much. Easy to blade this deficit w the decline in trade barriers and icnrease in comm cost. But it mainly comes from us government deficit. Comes from fact that the us govt has a problem. Theyre running a govt deficit and someone has to chip in to pay deficit. If u look at current balance w canada and _____ they arent bad at all. Canada is 2% and is also the main trading partner. Most of the trade deficit in the us comes w trade w germany and china.

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