OIDD 261 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: American Cancer Society, Matagorda Bay, Precautionary Principle
1 Jun 2018
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Notes on Slides 9:
A Semi-quantitative Risk Assessments for Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty
• Specify potential threat and accident scenarios
• Barriers and their effectiveness
• Possible risk reduction measures
• Uncertainties associated with scenarios
Case Study: Matagorda Bay, Texas
Potential Risks: spill from ship due to collision
LNG Spill and ignition of vapor cloud
Notes on Slides 10:
**Mammogram Case Role Play**
• American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommends that regular
screenings begin at age 40
• American Cancer Society calls for women to start yearly screening at age 45 and then
move to screening every two years starting at age 55
• U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent panel of experts whose members
are appointed by the federal government, recommends women between 50 and 74
should get routine screening once every two years
Difference between Risk Assessment and Precautionary Principle:
• Risk assessment: make tradeoffs between expected benefits and costs in setting
standard (e.g. benzene)
• Precautionary principle: agencies and governments should minimize environmental risk
by anticipating possible danger and where possible preventing it (e.g. Delaney clause)
Weak Version of Precautionary Principle
• Lack of decisive evidence of harm should not be a ground for refusing to regulate
• Requiring individuals to wear seat belts
• Drug regulation
• Clean Air Act Amendments require firms to develop risk management plans for
reducing likelihood of accidents
Strong Version of Precautionary Principle
• When an activity rases threats of harm to human health of the environment,
precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are
not established scientifically. In this context the proponent of the activity, rather than the
public, should bear the burden of proof (Wingspread Declaration 1998)
• Burden of proof is on scientists to show that product is harmless before it can be used
Why Precautionary Principle is Advocated:
• Loss aversion
• Myth of benevolent nature
• Availability heuristic--focus on salient risks
• Probability neglect--focus on consequences not probability
• System neglect--nuclear power band and global warming
Problems in Using Precautionary Principle
• Doesn’t consider tradeoffs between benefits and costs
Endangered species management has had a mixed record of success in Canada for two
principle reasons:
1. Difficult to balance environmental goals against other societal objective such as
economic benefits, recreation, health or safety
2. Scientific uncertainty regarding risks to endangered species
PP has been used to justify actions to protect species at risk when scientific info is not available
• Better safe than sorry
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
A semi-quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty: specify potential threat and accident scenarios, barriers and their effectiveness, possible risk reduction measures, uncertainties associated with scenarios. Potential risks: spill from ship due to collision. Strong version of precautionary principle: when an activity rases threats of harm to human health of the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not established scientifically. In this context the proponent of the activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof (wingspread declaration 1998: burden of proof is on scientists to show that product is harmless before it can be used. Why precautionary principle is advocated: loss aversion, myth of benevolent nature, availability heuristic--focus on salient risks, probability neglect--focus on consequences not probability, system neglect--nuclear power band and global warming. Problems in using precautionary principle: doesn"t consider tradeoffs between benefits and costs.
