OCG 301 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Numerical Weather Prediction, Jule Gregory Charney, Meteorology
Document Summary
A numerical model solves atmospheric and oceanic equations numerically on a. 3d grid of points (cells) that covers the globe. The spacing between these points dictates the resolution of the model. Tomorrow will be much the same as today. Works well when conditions change only slowly. Given a long record of past weather on every day of the year, forecast most frequently observed weather for day of interest. Works well provided the general conditions are similar to the most common conditions for the time of the year. Give a long record of the sequence of weather conditions, look for a past sequence that resembles the last few days to weeks, and forecast whatever followed it. Difficult to use effectively because of finding a match. Estimate the speed at which features are moving. Applied over a period of a few hours this method is called nowcasting. Thermal - atmospheric dynamics are ultimately driven by temperature gradients arising from uneven solar heating.
