PSC 116G Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Appeasement, Bounded Rationality, Militarized Interstate Dispute
March 2nd
Foreign Policy Process
Foreign Policy Analysis
• Understant and predict state behavior in terms of actors and processes at the domestic
level
• Three main levels of analysis
• 1. Process of state decision making (state level)
• 2. Bureaucracies (group level)
• 3. Psychological characteristics of leaders (individual level)
• Predominant focus on leaders and executive branch
• Legislators: power of purse, authorization of force
Rational Actor Model
• Compares actual decisons to an abstraction of how decisions should be made
• Assumes underlying rationality
• Rationality is about process, not outcome
• Even best choices can turn out badly
• Always degree of uncertainty
• Model assumes that state decision makers:
• 1. Have clear goals/preferences
• 2. Calculate costs/benefits of different actions
• 3. Have a level of risk properisity (averse vs. acceptance)
• 4. Choose action that best serves their goals
Unexpected Unity Theory
• Predicts actors will choose policy of greatest value, not policy of highest payoff
• Leaders evaluate policies by estimating:
• 1. Probability of success or failure of choices
• 2. Expected costs of possible choices
• Transactions costs: actual expenditures to commit to policy (money, time,
and personnel)
• Opportunity costs: other alternatives the expenditures could be used for
• 3. Expected utility of that policy compared to the alternatives
• EU = probability (benefit/cost)
• Examples of EUT at work: Christopher Columbus & Saddam Hussein
Challenges of EUT
• Most people dont calculate expected utility
• Example: playing the lottery
• Cost: $1, payoff: $10,000,000 (after taxes)
• Probability: 1 in 195,249,053
• EU = cost - (probabilty x payoff)
• EU = - $0.95
• Problem: the foreign policy process often creates deviations from rationality
March 5th
Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy
• Most foreign policy is designed and implemented by bureaucracies
• Gather information to make policies
• Implement and monitor policies
• All countries have similar set of bureaucracies in executive branch
• State, defense, national security agency, intelligence
Gov’t Bargaining (Bureaucratic Politics) Model
• More incentive to fight for own interests rather than search for most ‘rational’ policy
• Political needs > foreign policy needs
• Bureaucracies have different interests because of mission (role) and budget
• Example: ‘Rivalry’ between Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines
• Policies that result from bureaucratic politics are often unintended
Small Group Decision Making
• Key decisions are made by leaders and closet advisors
• Problems inherent to small group decision making can lead to irrational decisions
Groupthink: group quickly arrives a single solution and shuts down any further debate
Group members feel social pressure to reach consensus
• Teamwork is highly valued - hesitant to criticize
• Leader also responsible for individuals success - strong disincentive to
criticize or disagree
Individual Decision Making
• Most of the critical decisions are made by single decision maker
• Psychology and personality matter
• Individuals deal with ambiguity and uncertainty in different ways
• Leaders differ in reactions to the same situation
• Subject to different information screens: subconscious filters through which
people put the information coming in about the world around them
Unmotivated Bias
• Bias stemming from how individuals simplify and categorize information in an extremely
complex and complicated world
• Biological limits
• Central insight: decision making is characterized by bounded rationality
• Try to be rational but limited in their ability
• Limits to information access
• Limits to information processing ability
Document Summary
Foreign policy analysis: understant and predict state behavior in terms of actors and processes at the domestic level, three main levels of analysis, 1. Process of state decision making (state level: 2. Psychological characteristics of leaders (individual level: predominant focus on leaders and executive branch, legislators: power of purse, authorization of force. Have a level of risk properisity (averse vs. acceptance: 4. Unexpected unity theory: predicts actors will choose policy of greatest value, not policy of highest payoff, leaders evaluate policies by estimating, 1. Probability of success or failure of choices: 2. Expected costs of possible choices: transactions costs: actual expenditures to commit to policy (money, time, and personnel, opportunity costs: other alternatives the expenditures could be used for, 3. Expected utility of that policy compared to the alternatives: eu = probability (benefit/cost, examples of eut at work: christopher columbus & saddam hussein.
